ays

World

Cold economic reality dawning on GDR

By ROB PRINCE

PANKOW, EAST BERLIN—A sign in
the window of a Berlin shop declared: “We
accept GDR Deutschemarks here.” Cur-
iously enough, I was in East Berlin at the
time. It was late April but already the econ-
omic floodgates had opened—West Ger-
man and other Western products were inun-
dating the country.

Marlboro cigarettes and French wine are
sold in food stores now along with Coca
Cola, Fanta and a variety of shiny packaged
fruit juices from the Federal Republic of
Germany (FRG). For three times the price
of its GDR variant, one can taste the won-
ders of West Berlin ice cream, no better in
quality or taste than that produced in the
German Democratic Republic (GDR), but
still selling well.

So itis with many products. Despite their
higher prices, the pent up demand for West
German goods remains great and people buy
whatever they can afford from the West:
food, shoes, electronic equipment and more.
Those who can afford to buy used cars.

Drawn to western consumer goods long
denied them, East Germans are somewhat
mesmerized by the packaging techniques
and the “freedom” to choose among 10 or
12 different kinds of deodorant.

The GDR citizenry may have put an end
to the abuses of the past, but harsh economic
realities will follow on the tail of their hard-
won political freedoms. The honeymoon is
over. As their emerging economic situation
becomes clearer, it is anything but rosy.

The July 1 monetary union looks like
another salvo of a long-term crisis which

The GDR citizenry may have put an end to the abuses

of the past, but harsh economic realities will follow on
the tail of their hard-won political freedoms. |

will certainly be part of the reunification
process. Weeks before the Deutschemark
becomes the official currency in the GDR,
the unrestrained flood of West German
goods is already having a debilitating impact
on the economy.

The population has, for all purposes,
stopped buying domestically produced pro-
ducts in favour of Western goods and in
anticipation of buying more FRG products
after July 1. As a result, the market for
GDR-produced tape recorders, washing ma-
chines, shoes, candy, beer clothes, food,
trucks and cars has dried up. Already, these
products can hardly be sold.

A year ago, people waited up to 10 years
for the GDR-made Trabant. Today, the com-
pany is having difficulty finding buyers.
Without money to pay salaries, to say noth-
ing of credit necessary for future economic
restructuring, companies in such situa-
tions—and there are many—will go under
when government subsidies end.

It is estimated that 100,000 of the
150,000 workers in the auto industry face
imminent layoffs as do all 42,000 in the shoe
industry as GDR warehouses fill up with
products no one will buy. Of 108 breweries

El Salvador, the strife-torn Central
American country where human rights
abuses by right-wing governments are a
decades-old legacy, has no less than four
human rights organizations.

Manuel Magana notes, however, that
one is a creature of the government and
its role is to paper over the almost daily
violations by army troops and govern-
ment-connected death squads. Two
others, one non-governmental and the
other run by the archbishop of El Sal-
vador, are highly effective organizations,
he relates.

But the unique nature of the human
rights group linked to the Farabundo
Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN)

_ js that it can report abuses at their source
— in the combat zone, the newly ap-
pointed representative for the organiza-
tion in Canada says.

“It is easier for the FMLN to monitor
front-line abuses,” says Magana, who
opens an office in Ottawa on behalf of the
human rights branch next month.

The full name of the organization is
the FMLN Secretary for the Promotion
and Protection of Human Rights. Foun-
ded in 1987, it has offices in Geneva and
New York, and reports regularly to the
United Nations and the Organization of
American States.

Canada’s recent membership in the
OAS makes a Canadian office particular-
ly important, Magana, a former teacher
and arts student who has lived in Canada
since 1984, says.

“We believe solidarity in Canada is
important. And it is important to develop

FMLN opens Ottawa
human rights office

an education plan for Canadian govern-
ment members.”

Within El Salvador, the organization
is running a campaign until April, 1991,
in which teams will assess human rights
violations in combat zones, educate
FMLN combatants on the international
rules of conflict, and report violations to
appropriate international monitoring
groups and governments.

The human rights branch also wants
the government of President Alfredo
Cristiani to respect international coven-
ants regarding the evacuation of war
wounded, Magana says.

There are 16,000 wounded veterans
from both sides of the 11-year old con-
flict, but successive U.S.-backed Salva-
doran regimes have refused to consider
FMLN combatants as war wounded
under Geneva regulations, he related.

Under the Cristiani government,
formed last year when the ultra-right
wing National Republican Alliance
(ARENA) party came to power, abuses
by government-linked death squads in-
creased and draconian laws were enact-
ed. The ARENA government felt strong,
and refused to take seriously peace talks
with the FMLN, Magana notes.

But since the November-December
offensive by the front, and international
censure following the army-linked kill-
ing of six Jesuit priests, recent talks have
reached the negotiation stage, he says.

“Our assessment is that it is possible
we could have a ceasefire agreement by
Sept. 15 (El Salvador’s independence
day),” Magana says.

6 « Pacific Tribune, June 25, 1990

in the country, perhaps five will survive. The
list goes on and on.

Even trade organizations set up specifi-
cally to market GDR-produced products
throughout the country do not accept many
GDR goods any more. Lothar de Maziere,
the Christian Democrat Prime Minister of
the GDR who did so much to open his
country to this unrestrained economic offen-
sive, tried anemicall Ry and to no avail to

rally the nation’s consumers to GDR

products. “Our products are no worse (than
the FRG’s); they’re just not so attractively
packed.” »

The contest between West German dom-
inated transnationals and the GDR state-run
enterprises will be short, nasty and uneven.
Left unprotected in the face of an offensive
of West German consumer products, the
GDR planned economy is fast collapsing.

All the indicators point to a clean sweep for:

FRG capital. Furthermore, not much is be-
ing proposed in its place. Economic barriers
between two vastly different German econ-
omies are being lifted without any transition
period.

According to Bonn financial experts (as
reported in Der Spiegel), it is unlikely that
three out of 10 presently constituted GDR

industrial concems will survive in a market _
economy until the end of the year. Overall’

unemployment grew from 26,635 in March
to almost 65,000 in April to over 100,000 in
May and will rise far beyond that soon.

Just how high it will go is impossible to
predict, but estimates vary wildly, from
500,000 to four million. The latter figure is
one half the currently employed population.
With the exception of FRG political and
banking public relations spokespeople, most
Western economics experts cite figures gen-
erally between 2-3 million.

Whatever the actual number, the GDR
will be plagued with an unprecedented level
of unemployment and inflation. And as
those realities slowly dawn on the citizenry
there, security vanishes. In fact, insecurity is
fast replacing the hope of recent months. If
they have rejected the abuses of a Stalinist
model of socialism, the GDR people are
about to get a crash course in the rarities of
life under capitalism.

People are not only afraid for their jobs
and of higher prices. They fear for their
homes which could be taken from them after
privatization. They worry about the growing
wave of crime, for the future of their child-
ren, and about a world where suddenly val-
ues are shaped more and more by the hard
realities of money.

While the anxiety level is growing, the
response and grassroots fightback to the
coming economic hurricane—and it will be
nothing short to that—is still rather muted,
or so it was on May 6 when despite some
small modifications, the GDR electoraté
voted for local candidates along lines pretty
much coinciding with their choices of
March 18, which ushered in a pro-quick
monetary and political union government to
power. :

Some think the waming signs are exag-
gerated; others think that somehow they will
not be affected personally. Still others simp-
ly have no idea what to do after so many
years without traditions of social activism
and meet the future with resignation.

The signs of social protest are growing,

but remain at a seminal stage. On April 29;

ROB PRINCE

some 1,200 GDR farmers drove tractors to
form a 50-kilometre caravan on a road near
Herzberg, south of Berlin, protesting the
flood of West German agricultural products
which is putting severe pressure on the
800,000 East German cooperative farmers,
at least half of whom are expected to lose
their jobs with the privatization of agricul-
ture. ‘

Many of the workers in the doomed GDR
shoe industry are on strike. Such activities
will sharply increase in frequency in the

weeks to come as literally every sector of

society experience the impact of imposing a
market economy by storm.

Until now there have been few organized
Opposition forces defending peoples rights
on a grass roots level. They include the
reformed former ruling Socialist Unity
Party, now called the Party of Democratic
Socialism (PDS), a left coalition called
Bundnis 90, made up of former “New
Forum” advocates and former dissident
groups still true to the grassroots principles,
and now more recently the German Dem-
ocratic Farmers Party (DBD) and Farmers
Association.

The GDR trade union movement has also
become active. However, left forces remain
split as there is still great reluctance to co-
operate with the PDS, which—despite put-
ting forth what many admit to be an excel-
lent program—cannot shake its pariah status
as the past ruling party.

More recently other voices have spoken
out, warning of what lies ahead. Manfred
Stople, an official of the Protestant Church
of the GDR spoke of a “dangerous mood”
and warned of a “hot autumn.” Ibrahim
Bohme, former chair of East Germany’s So-
cial Democratic Party (SPD) spoke of “lat-

ent civil war.” Elmar Pieroth, former econ- —

omic affairs senator in West Berlin and now
and economic advisor the East German gov-

ernment, is calling for “some kind of protec-

tion” for business and industry, a call which
has gone unheeded.

Even after July 2, it might be several |
months before the full impact of the econ- —
omic changes sink in. But in the fall all hell -
could break loose. Among those who will be ~

immediately affected:

¢ Students graduating from institutes and
technical schools will find no jobs waiting —

them for the first time in 40 years;

¢ Many government employees working —

in GDR ministries will find their jobs made
redundant as FRG ministries take over
administration of GDR activities;

+ Many people staffing social services,

such a day care, kindergartens, museum
libraries, local administration and coope:
tive farms will find themselves unemploy
when state subsidies disappear.

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