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: oe ‘Publisher Dowi id Ha Won oS

. ” 3 rast acai
_ Page 2 Toe Herald, Weidesday, Apr

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Caralyn Gibson * “Maria Taylor

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Improvement slow
"TORONTO (CP) — The Canadian economy should show
success In battling unemployment over the short term, the
Conference Board | says In a quarterly forecast released

today. *
The predictions by the privately-funded research group

* gay production of goods and services, as measured by the

rea) gross national product, should rise by two per cent this
year and surge to $.4 per cent'in 104.

But unemployment will continue to be.troublesome, the
board saya in a forecast released at a Toronto conference,
with the rate dropping only gradually from the 12, Sper cent
record set late last year,

The hoard expects the jobless rate to average 12.3 per
cent this year, falling to an average 1 11.8 per cent in 1904, At
the end of next year, the memployment rate wil be about

. 4.2 per cent, the board eatimates.

The recession, worst aince the Depression of the 19908, .

has led to 4 record 1,670,000 persons jobless. That does not

-catint people who have given up the search for work.
The board says, however, there is good news on the.

inflation front, with the consumer price index — the most
comimonly-sed indicator of inflation — expected to rise by
5.8 per cent this year and only 4.9per cent in 1964,

That ls about half the annua rate of last year,
PREDICTS THE RATE

Aa inflation moderates, interest rates — now at a auyear
low — are expected to remain well below the record levels
wet just over a year go.

“On. balance,-the- Conference Board # pees ‘the “économy

now poised for a healthy recovery in the next year or 40,"'
the forecast ;
interest rates, and a sharp rebound in economic activity In

the United States will likely provide the principal stimulus

to the recovery, "
Key ingredients of the recovery will be an Increase In

’ consumer confidence as inflation and interest rates fall, the

modest stimulus of last week's federal budget, an énd to
annnonnnntttitttittory rimdowns ae economic acilvity picks
up and a strong export sector,

The board estimates that the federal ‘budget will add

"about half a percentage point to the gross national product

in both this year and next.

The Conference Board's estimates of econothic growth in”
1983 and 1984 are very close to those predicted in the budget.

Finance Minister Marc Lalonde estimated growth this”

year at 2.9 per cent, somewhat bigher than the board
forecast, but his prediction of 5.2 per cent growth next year
is lower than the Conference Board's.

On Tuesday, Thomas Maxwell, the board's: vice-president

. tnd chief economist, sald Lalonde’s estimate of this year's

_ tederal deficit of m1. 3 billion seemed about $1.8 billion too
high.

Government spending ia not expected to be a major

'. source: of strength, the board says, Government

expenditures on goods and services, afler adjustment for

inflation, is estimated to rice by half a pércentage Point this,

your and 1.1 per cent in 1964,

The board says the federal deficit, on a national accounts
basis, will be“$24.88 billion this year, compared with a
government estimate of 23.9 billion. Maxwell sald Tuesday
some of the discrepancy might be. accounted ‘for by
different methods of calculating energy prices.

Consumer spending on goods and services will recover
steadily this year and next, the board says, in spite of a
further. small decline in real disposable income. The
turnaround will be noticeable in the durable goods sector —
goods such as appliances and furnishings which are
expected to last more than two years — with spending
growth in this sector to rise by alx per cent this year and
nines per cent in 1084,

However, overall business investinent ia not likely. to
recover quickly in the near term, the board says, with a
‘decline expected again this year in spite of recent. budget
initiatives, There should be a modest pickup in machinery
and equipment spending in 1984, the forecast ways.

Housing starts are estimated at 190,000 this year, up from

the depressed level of 130,000 in 1983. In 1084, atarts should
rise to 202,000, ;

0.Kalum, Street, - - years ‘ago. Now many of his. colleagues

. Irrigation.

says, "Declining inflation, relatively low ..

The Herald welcomes Its: readers :

submitted within 24 hours of desired
Publication date.

-. Companies to-report a decline in first-quarter Profit. :

comments, All, lattera fo thé editor of
general public oy Wl pe printed. .

They should be: e hours ‘in —
advance of ord tlon date. We'. :].
do, however, er “g tto refuse to
print letters on st oi ee libel -

. orbadtaste, We We jnby af ers for
style and length to be
considered for : eh: “must be
signed, It Is: Impossible to print a letter:

Scientists sug,

TACOMA, Wash. (AP) ~Wobpdy

Bll Campbl?’ide o tow trom: the South Pole.’

‘Th6 Tacoma: scientist first Moated ‘the idea about ten -
evidence of 8 dramatic: wotld-wid el bed ae ot
lence of.a drama () le — a
‘developing iceberg ‘vision,’ too; Bay ae
- Campbell'‘has advocat tov iceberge to ard gid
of tme world and usl a the, melting water tor rep.

- Scientists have also, found the froveni masses of water tan

+ +/1be used to pr@llct the Weather-a Year in ailvance and that.
~ Raby be useful in boosting agriculture productivity. to. feed
“an increasingly hungry ' world, Campbell waldo oe

> Advertising Sales:

: This summer, Campbell joins’ <more ‘than: 10 other

scientists from 10 natlons in a project, ‘mown’ as the

OTTAWA (CP). - The ‘Canadian. Civil ‘Liberties
Association has warned the. Commons against holding a

proposed one-day debate possibly leading ‘to the

entrenchment of property rights in. the Constitution.
Such an amendment could lead to “perverse results,”

saye a letter from: association officials delivered today to:
' the House Jeaders of the three federal parties. .

One day would not be: “adequate debate" for uch a
complex issue, the letter says, =

Instead, the question should be referred to a ‘Commons
committee to ensure public participation. Such commmittees-

are allowed to call expert witnesses to bebtlfy on matters ‘of.

public policy...

But Ray Hnatyshyn, Progressive, Conservative justice
critic, and Doug Lewis, the Tory House: leader,: told
reporters the issue already ‘received extensive . debate:

during 1960 and 1981 - wher’. constituttonal <dlscuspions|

ns business.
“steady improvement” this year but there willbe no major dominated Commo:

They saw nd reason to accept the recommendation in the
letter to have a fullscale debate now.. .
The letter was signed by Alan Borovoy, -aasociation

general counsel, Walter’ Pitman, prealdent;, and Kenneth

Swan, chairman, °

, Protection of property in the US. Bi of Rights led to
“dublous jurisprudence” that for years prevented the
enactment of legislation establieching minimum wages,

regulation of hours of work and bans on child labor, the :

letter says.

y'aUaiaghing any moge at

. symbolic.

tracing at: too unre of Puget Sound...

” “7 lee #6 Jook:at ‘the earth as a. spaceship,” Campbel. ‘bet

e-conaidéring. The aclentists trie:
mn ice Pole, Greenland and Splabergen thir

"said, “with: the ize of the crew doubling every $9 years. <- ' ah

- Partag ‘earth are under atress.There’s DDT in theworld’s. *
oceans, and the ability to grow | food fs decreasing because +

_of the cooling” ‘effect. :

-" The meni tampetature'ofthe earth aince ‘the ‘inlé-19408,
has dropped by eight-tenths of one” degree w the tow 4s.
_ Fahrenhelt, Campbell maids

- Property rights: debate protested

 “Tnatent debate tam no way to’ handle the enduring values of -

our .civilizatiton.” -Amendments’ adopted hastily: “ean
produce unexpected and perverse results, wo

The Tories accepted the offer, but then wie Liberals began

to backtrack, saying’ New Democratic Party support fora

one-day debate was also required. ee

NDP Leader Ed Broadbent said last week his party. wan
undecided whether to support the proposed resolution and.”

promised to study the issue.

" Provincially, the NDP is spllt an the ts insuo: for exile,

the British Columbia NDP favors” the ‘idea. Dut the
Saskatchewan. NDF is opposed. —
The entire question could become academic because even

Constitution, «
representing half-the country’s population must ‘paks an
identical resolution for the amendment to carry...

British Columbia bas already ‘passed such a resolution
and Ontario is willing to do the same; But some provinces,

including ‘Alberta, Saskatchewan ‘and Prince. Edward
Island, ‘are opposed ‘to the idexw,

- Experts are divided on the value of entrenching property
rights in the Constitution. .

Some ace such action as a protection ; for the “little oy” .
. against government intervention in -the economy. and
. property ssues, Others see {t'as protection for business

intereata and some say” ipa ines be: merely

Recession ¢ pronoun 3 ed ¢ over

Canada’s biggest bank pronounced ‘the recession over on

_ Tuesday, but the news was cold comfort for two of the Big «
. Three domestic steelmaker which reported heavy, frat.

quarter lossea; =~
Th its atest monthly economic report, the Royal Bank af
Canada said a healthy rebound in industrial production jis in

. place, signalling the end of the worst recession. alnce the

Second World War.

The bank also’ forecast strong economic. growth, ,

moderating inflation and falling interest rates over the next

. Meanwhile, Steleo Inc. of TORONTO AND Algoma Steel.

Corp. Lid. reported losses of $14.6 million and $22.6 million, - -

respectively, for the first three months of the year,. :

Stelco, the country's largest steel producer, earned $5.7
million in the same period last year; while No: Sranked
Algoma had 8 profit of $92.6 million in the 1082-petiod.

Stelco’s sales reverive in the quarter totalled.$472 million,'
down from $590 million a year ago, while sales at Algoma,
based In Sault Ste. Marie, Ont, plummeted to sue malllon
from-§321 million.

Stelco is ‘cautlousty optimistic about the second quarter,
_ with operating levels dependent upon the'strength of car
rates.

a
oi

. MORTGAGE RATES FALL

ales, Incrensad | housing starts and continued low. interest .

Algoma has also seen an improvernent in. business,
although volume, product mix and prices are expected to

remain unsatisfictory. The company aald it it expects to lose

money again in the second quarter.

Also on Tuesday, Lee lacocea proclalmed Chrysler Corp.

which notlong ago was teetering on the edie. of bankruptcy,
is finally out of the woods,

“You reporters no longer have to wa those adjectives of
struggling, ailing and financlally-strapped when you talk
about Chrysler; you'll have to find a-new set,’ hé told a

“news conference to introduce the company's latest car

ifdreaare”

miodengs eT

. mies he

ote fis tavbe ad
. flout

week strike by the United Auto Workers, ;
‘And last week, the parent | company announced a 1088

. first-quarter profit of $172.1 nailion US., -the: highest .

quarterly Profit in Its histery. -

ra

In another. development, ‘the cost’. of ‘short-term

mortgages fell, below the 10-per-cent level ol Tueaday for the :
_. frat dme'ln almost a a decade, coe

Oil industry analysts baffled

TORONTO (CR — Oil industry analyats are somewhat
baffled by the dramatically different financial: results
reported by the big forelgn-controlled integrated oll
companies in this year's first quarter.

Shell Canada Ltd. of Toronto sald its profit dipped to $1B
million from $24 million a year earlier. But Gul! ‘Canada

Ltd, of Toronto was able to double tts profit to $48 million. :
“They all faced the same market conditions, so this much"

of a divergence is very unusual," said North Cooper, an
_ analyst with Toronto-based Cassels Blaikie and Co. Lid,

_ Bach of the companies had to contend with Heres gasoling
‘price wars that trimmed the profits of their marketing and
Tefining operations, At the same time, they all got a litt
from higher prices for crude oll and natural: gas that took
effect in the first quarter.

Even oll executives couldnit fully explain why some
companies did ao well and others fel| behind.

But Don Melvor, chairman of Imperial oii Lid., the
biggest of the integrated companies, said an: explanation
might lie in the different mix of their assets and operations,

For instance, a large part of Imperial’s operating profit
has traditionally come from marketing and refining, so the
company was vulnerable to the recesslon-induced {slump In
the gasoline and heating oil market,

So despite higher prices for crade oll and increased oll:

production at its Synerude oll sands plant, Imperial's |

2 min profit rose by only a modest 2 million to $61
m On, .
On the other hand, Gulf Canada and-Texaco Canada Inc,

of Toronto depend on production of crude oll and natural

gas to supply the lion's share of their income, Tals provided
them with a lttle more insulation than Imperial from the :
Slump in marketing and refining,

Texaco, which holds exploration and production. rights on

large tracts of oll-prone Alberta land, reported that Its-

“profit rose by a $10 million to #78 million in the first quarter.
And Gulf got an extra lift when it made an unusually large

. oll discovery at Rumeey, Alta., last summer. Analysts any
'’ the Rumsey well Js producing 4,000 barrels of crude a day.

Shell, however, wastheonly one of the top four integrated:

because of sluggish markets.
As weil, Shell took on a great deal of debt to finance

. ‘expansion projects, so its interest costs were higher than:

those of the other of] companies,

But the different mix of asseta alone does’ t fully expla
“why some companies did remarkably better than-others: In

particular, it doesn’t explain why Guif was able to virtually.

’ double its profil, |

_ Denis Mote, a Toronto- based analyst with the investment

firm of Levesque Beaubien Inc, of Montreal, believes part.
of the answer might lle in the way Gulf secounted for its -

exploration costs and other non-cash expenses in ite firat

: quarter financial revulte, _

* contributing nations include t the sua: Cattada Norway,

firat hour today.

- Detrott-hased Cyale's flamboyant chatrman had just
“cause for high spirits; -
"On Monday, Chrysler's Canadian subsidiary aid it made ;
ite firat annual profit since 1977 last year despite a five- :

‘Sweden, ‘Icstend,. ‘Denmark, ‘France, Germany England
‘and Switzerland,

” More than #0 percent of the world’s supply ag !
locked up th, the polar Ics caps and Cam ye, it maker
send 10° find a way-of utilleing i to irigate ropa.

“The ldeais not aa far fetched as once believed, ‘“ ‘he sald,
Prince Fahd of Saudi Arabia’ is interests ii
Icebergs to bring water to desert regions, Camp
but he admits that particular acheme is remote: The cargo
would have to survive two warm “water seas and Btormis en
-Foute, he sald.

However, Ganmpball sald it is feasible to wot cebergs
from Antarctica to'three areas of the world — ‘Australia,
South Africa, or Peru and Chile in South America,

“We're talking about: a place of ice. cniles-by-1¢imiles

. (-lometres-by-a¢kllometres) ‘and. 1, 200 ‘feet | (965
‘metres) thick," Campbell said, “It would. take 40 days to
- tow it to ‘Australia and 78 percent of it would: beet bg left,
‘ That's a lot of fresh water.”” . :
if Parliament passes a resolution aimed at amending the |
the legislatures’ ‘of seven: /provinces:

_ Stocks surge

* tock markets’ in Canada and ‘around the World surged
ahead in heavy trading teday amid: enthuslaim over
Tuesday's sirge past’ the 1200 level , in. the. Daw. jones
industrial average in New York, .

The closely watched average of 0 blue chipa;: up: 22, 25
Tuesday to record highs, tole another 2.61 to 1418.97 in the

™ the ‘Toronto Stock Bnchange was ® up sary in active
trading early today. -

“The TSE 800 composite WAB Up 18.87 to asi8.44 ‘with
advances outpacing declines £49 to .104. while as were.

unchanged 0. volume: of, a8 million. shares.

All but twoof the 14 atook grovpsin the Toronto composite
advanced, Jed by rea): catate and Cengtrocto which

‘climbed 132.08 to 4396.70,

* @ulda took a beating tn a sellott, eam Prt 4206.38,
Galnera held a 8-to-3 lead over losera among, New York

Stock Exchange-listed lnsues.

Volume for. the firet hour on the New York Stock
Exchange totalled 41.32 million shares, the third higheat

- opening-hour total on record. The record of 46.50 maitlon | wo
WEE Bet, Asst Sey. Miwa a

hss ia oa oe .
lprgenh rye 7 . “Am

‘The break Tuesday through the a barrier, just two
months ‘after the Dow reached 1100 for the first | {
surprised and impressed many traders, ; ae

‘Analysts said aprending confidence’ about prospects for

the economic recovery appeared to be fostering steady

-demand for stocks, even at thelr current lofty prices.

- Since the market began ite runaway rise more than elght
months ago, numerous warnings have been sounded that it
was vulnerable ton setback. But %0 fat, no such. so-called
‘correction has. materialized. |

wall Street eneray’ stocks were strong for the second

straight day, aided by some. better- -than-expected firat-

. quarter earnings reports in the industry, Exxon-rose % to

. 44; Standard. Oil of Indlana al to 4K, and Atlantic
Rihfleld 114 to 45%.

Prices on the London Stock Exchange hit @ new record

. high with the Financial Times index breaking’ epoush the
_ToO-point barrier for thefirat time, |.

Financtal markets in Paris, Frankfurt and Onto; Norway,

aloo naw heavy trading in the wake of Tesetay'e purge on
a the Dow. .

Equal pay ‘legislation needed? |

OTTAWA (CP) — New census data: showing the average

annual income of ‘women lagging far behind that of ea
demonstrates the need dor provincial governments fo pasa |

equal pay legialation, says Judy Erola, minister: respon

for the atatus of women.

Only the federal and Quebec geveriments have. passed

-legislation providing men and women equal pay for work

ofequal value, Erola anid in an interview Tuesday.

: Ninety per: cent of workers ‘are under ‘provincial

juriadietlon, so women “must direct their anger and .

frustration” at provincial governments, she sald,

Data from the 1901 census released earlier in the day

shows the average annual income of women was lesa than
half that ofmen in 1080, Beste patna made by women in the ©

last decade,

Supply and Services Mintater Jean-Jacques Blais, in
releasing the data, said women’s Income experienced “a,
remarkable increase" to 49.7 per cent from 44.1 per cent, of.

‘inen’s in@me during the decade.

The average income of fernales increased to ats fom -.

$6,900 in the 1070-90 period, after taking into: account

inflation, Men's average Income incrensed to #6 1g froth,

$14,210. .

. These iigures: include income gained tori all’ toute
-. Ineluding part-time work, investments, Denalons; welt
‘and émemployment inaurance, ° a
_.. Atmore realistic comparison between men’s and’ women's
. > wagea can be made.by viewing their annual serninds only
oll analysts say Shell's weakness arises from its position 7
48 a major natural gas producer, at a me when huge |:
- Peservés of natural gas are just sitting in the ground.

Py

from full-time employment. - :
Using 180 dollar's, these figures were #13677 for women

i and: $21,441 for men in 1980 and. 610,687 for women and
; $17,883 for men in 1970, says other Statistics Canada data:
not contained in thé census package released Tuesday.

4 ‘Therefore, women's egmings from full-time employment
actually Increased 10 63.7 pet. cent from HOO per pent of
. men’s earnings.:.

"Bat women al have tong way togn ioe 1p to men

4

are H
are. Agua income during the decade, largely because more

and Erode saya it wil bea long time betore the wage aap
disappears.

Blais. . ‘appeared more optimistic, telling a news

‘conference nore women are In management portions and

‘Tort be able to wie their influence to harrow that aap even

Te minister conceded he is not t completely satisfied with.

the remalning. Wage gap, but dald he is not the pereon, “who -

pastes judgment" on such isses,

* Federal policies: —or the lack of them — on the a status of

women are not to blame for ‘the gap, Blais and Erola
. malatalned, " i

“Only a few weeks ago, Gordon Fairweather, federal
‘human rights commissioner, criticized the government for,
‘not Living up to Its own policies by refusing to implement
" affirmative actioti programs. Such Programs are deslgned:

‘to ligrense the number of women, the handleapped and
al minorities hired and promoted,

‘brola maid equal pay for work-of equal value ke legislation
does more for increasing women's earnings fen
atfirmative action programs,

ly -income Increased substantially ° more. than

ants joined the labor force, Statistica Canada offidals
Family income, | as expressed in 1960 dollars, increased to
an average of $26,748 from €20,620 d the decade.

 - Statistics Canada officials skid‘ the rate of increase in

-femily income alowed In the latter part of the decade and

> wai reduced even further during this decade as inflation .
_ and the recésston hit pocketbooks,

“Ginee 1981, there hasn't been any significant increase {in
farnily inoome),” an official said,
- The figures released Tuesday also indicated more. jobs ,

“were available and worker politi increased hy! 16 to
20 ber cent during the deca

iat; -