f ist ae . .
Non €ctive the state system of social security, and
fay,’ “te More democratic the social system — the
ada jv cTable are conditions for a decline in mortality
in the average life span. Parents exercise more
Wcitdres sciously their choice as to the desired number
» Postponing new births to an auspicious time or
Thig tot tohave any newbirthsatall. =
rie are peural decline in natality as developing coun-
ternlay odernized has been brought about through an
ig Dhetomes number of interconnected and interdepend-
an extent.” 2mong which are: 1) a high birth rate is,
4) the dig: t, Compensatory for a high infant mortality;
oe the dent’ Station of the patriarchal peasant family
y importance of children for the family
‘“otuotig, THe legal prohibition of child labor and the in-
{ t ; Compulsory schooling have limited the em-
t raising <ctildren and have increased family expenses
matty hag families, while the introduction of social se-
TS of ;. wnished the importance of children as sup-
Ps tus of Patents in their old age; 3) the changed social
ction, gq en. their growing involvement in social pro-

, slUcation, political and cultural life, has contri-

itty Of yo Production; 4) the increase in the social mo-

» among other factors, result in marriage at

tthe prt Cultural needs also grow and parents tend to
Me humber of chien

Weyer
he “ a ‘t goes without saying, the decline in birth
i =e of social factors is limited by the biolo-
byaiten Thee. sunct to procreation and the desire for
ica factors are reinforced at the family level
38 hej nd social motives — the desire to have chil-

Neto, Wlogi of family property, for example. In addi-
us

of modern life have b forth a new

a ife have brought forth a ne¢

“Stimatatt® een. a “psychological refuge,” which
. ied ity.

fang chile 1S that while the economic necessity for

he fut it is n, 1S gradually disappearing for individual

tes to the “aging” of the population, ‘ie.,

i, go Which in the number of older people in the popula-
eS Vang S Certain negative consequences — econom-
by PeNdity ee Political — in particular, in higher pub-
Alotce. of som their maintenance. the ‘“‘aging”’ of the
al the electorate, and so on. :
‘nalysis of the demographic situation by

an in COntribu Ce of manpower. Besides, a decline in na-

of countries — developing and developed —
the decisive role of changed socio-economic
the transformation of. the reproductive pro-
cess of the world population, which demonstrates the
untenability of- attempts to forecast world population by
of the present high growth rates
embarked on the road
ir economic and cultural backward-
i tries have thereby begun their
natality, low mortality and low
f the population characteristic
countries. The present ‘population ex-
y and sraneeet tome the
tion. will gra y slow down
povates at pelicde that in the ce
perhaps i e second half of the next century, it sta-
ili at ea of 12-16 billion which, even by present
rea of the earth fit for habitation, cannot
bsolute overpopulation.’
agree with the opinion that the ex-
may necessarily lead
1 resources and catastro
t. Such prophesies disregard _
the progress of technology and changes
Science has long since demonstrated
dence of the fact — that man-

clearly shows
conditions in

a simple extrapolation
to a long-term
of eliminating th
ness, the developing coun
firm transition to the low
rate of natural

of the developed
” ig a temporar

perspective. Having

there is every reason

estimates of the a
be regarded as an ae

Also, one canno :

ted increase in world population
to the exhaustion of natura
pollution of the
the main thing —
in social conditions. a
Re Piel resources that are sufficient to
ts of a growing population of any:

etic _ relegation to the background of the biological
®ueatign and their increasing aspirations for a high-

az: | i
Materiag anced age; and 5) as living standards increase, - supply the requiremen

size. .
At the UN sympos!
the environment, held i
reparation for the Wo
charest from Augus

ium -on tion, resources and
ae in the fall of 1973 in
rid Population Conference being
t 19-30, 1974, a detailed com-
ted which showed that the world could
e with a full nutritional ee
d technology comparable to those
me ng farm in Iowa, USA. (UNESCO
9/307, Feb. 1974, p. 18, Russian)
te that this estimate does not take ac-
ts such as a further improve-
wide use of the resources of the
tion by chemical means, etc. _
f experts concluded that, in
ailable stock of mineral deposits in
t a limit to the growth of population
there are huge areas on the globe which
d sufficiently to discover natural
jally true with regard to oceans
trata, which is true of a con-
the earth’s martane: a aeere
te tibility’”’ of na reso
en Sete at cee population that lies at —

putation was
provide 40 to
given the expenses
cal corn-growl
document, E/CN.

One should no
“count of new de Fi
ment. in crop yields,
world’s oceans, food produc

50 billion peopl

“iad Point out that the accelerated tempo and .

. absolute terms, the av:
the world should
... Even today
have not been explore
resources. This is espec
and seas and for

Lali, Te soy Ot so for society as a whole, as children are”

the “runaway” growth

the root of the alarming problem of hunger or the threat
of the energy crisis, but the concrete social causes which
impede rational utilization and equitable distribution of
such resources. Thus, the serious food supply difficulties
of the developing countries are unavoidable in conditions
of the backward agrarian economy that has been inheri-
ted from the era of colonialism and is characterized by
a narrow domestic market as a result of the poverty and
landlessness:of wide masses of peasants, and by low crop
yields and enormous crop losses due to primitive methods
of cultivation. These difficulties can be overcome only by
way of bold socio-economic transformations and, in the
first place, through implementation of important agrarian
reforms.

The same is true of the threat of economic cri-

‘sis which has arisen in the world. Such a crisis situation

has been occasioned not by demographic factors but by
the contradiction between the further gigantic growth of
productive forces and socialization of production as a re-
sult of modern scientific and technological revolution,
on the one hand, and the existing world system of capital-
ism, with its private ownership of the means of produc-
tion, its sharp contrasts in the distribution of wealth, mo-
nopolies and acute competition, militarism and the ar-
maments race, on the other. This is a system where pro-
duction is for profit, where the immediate private eco-
nomic gain is pursued without considerating its effects
on nature and society, especially the long-term effects,
which are the principal cause of the growing pollution of
the natural environment.

W... emphasizing the social character of the eco-
logical crisis, it would seem to be relevant to point out
here that the greatest damage to the biosphere of our
planet comes from the United States, where the pollu-
tion of the natural environment, has no practical connec-
tion either with the rate of population increase or its ab-
solute number. With a population a little over 200 million,
the United States uses the world’s natural resources and
pollutes the biosphere more intensively than do all the
developing countries with their combined population of
over 2.5 billion.

This does not absolve the developing countries of
protecting the natural environment. Having embarked on
the irreversible road of industrialization, many are al-
ready experiencing negative ecological consequences.
For example, the acute shortage of capital and the need
for maximum economic return with minimum expense,
in the shortest time, prompt them to effect ‘“‘economies’’
in industrial construction at the expense of high-cost sew-
age treatment facilities.

In perspective, this danger assumes especially ser-
ious proportions since, before the end of this century, the
economy of the developing countries will have to provide
for the needs of an additional 2.5 billion people, i.e., for as
many people as there were on the entire globe some
quarter of a century ago. And there will be a correspond-
ing demand for food, water, industrial goods, agricultural
and mineral raw materials, power and so on. And the de-
veloping countries must not only accomplish a gigantic
leap forward to satisfy the new requirements, but must
also adopt effective measures for protecting the human
environment.

No demographic policy can help here. The ‘mini-
mum’’ UN projections of population growth of the de-
veloping countries to the end of this century, which are
based on the most optomistic estimates of a possible fall in

. natality, place the growth at 4.5 billion people as against 5

billion, the “‘medium” projection, which is more reliable.
The difference of 500 million is significant enough, but it
will in no way change the nature of the problem. Even if
we proceed from the unlikely possibility that natality will
drop the world over to a replacement level by the year 1980,
the population of the world will still continue to increase
until approximately the middle of the next century, due
to the predominance of youth in the structure of the pop-
ulation of the developing countries, and only then stabili-
zation may take place. :

Thus, to prevent an ecological crisis and a negative
outcome to the accelerated birth rate in the world in the
decades to come, it is necessary to solve, as soon as pos-
sible, the social and political problems of modern times.

To achieve this, the developing countries must con-
sistently implement socio-economic and cultural trans-
formations in order to ensure, on a basis of planned pro-
duction and distribution, a rational use of natural resour-
ces and the application of advanced technologies in the
interest of both nature and society. This task requires
that world public opinion conduct a further, resolute strug-
gle for general and complete disarmament, for peace and
friendly cooperation among peoples, for national inde-
pendence and democracy. : ;

Favorable conditions for aiding the economic and
cultural development of the emerging countries interna-
tionally and for implementing practical steps for settling
demographic and ecological issues on a national, regional
and worldwide scale can be obtained only as a result of the
relaxation of international tensions and the conversion of
military expenditures to peaceful purposes.

PACIFIC TRIBUNE—FRIDAY, AUGUST 30, 1974-PAGE 7