14 annual rate of housing starts in the United States of 2 million units. The main reason for this optimistic forecast is the strong underlying demand which will be generated by the post-World War II baby boom. Between 1945 and 1955 an extremely large number of children were born. During the 1980’s this group will be in their early thirties, which is a prime age for household for- mations and home purchases. Itis at this age, for example, that young couples have usually saved enough money for a down payment on a home. Moreover, the birth of children will make it imperative for these young families to move into larger more spacious living quarters than the apartment units which were demanded by this group during the early 1970’s. We therefore anticipate that the proportion of single houses which will be demanded during the 1980’s will be as high as the record levels which have prevailed during the past two years. 6. Money will be available to support this demand because of the rapidly growing proportion of families which have two income earners. Approximately 50% of all U.S. women work and almost one-half of all homebuyers have two wage-earners. 7. Young couples have found that rapidly rising home prices have made houses the best investment hedge against inflation. 8. The U.S. housing industry in late 1978 was not overbuilt the way it was prior to the severe downturn in 1974-1975. In fact, the inventory-to-sales ratio has only been running at about one-half the level of late 1974. EFFECT OF 1979 HOUSING STARTS ON IWA NEGOTIATIONS _ In the analysis above we have pointed out the underlying strengths of the U.S. housing market during 1979 and the 1980’s. As housing starts decline during the early months of this year, however, the Industry will be certain to emphasize this downturn in negotiations. It is therefore important to make the following additional points regarding the effect of U.S. housing starts on the 1979 negotiations. 1. The Industry’s ability to pay a negotiated increase in wages and fringe benefits depends on housing starts during the entire contract year and not the rate of starts which prevails at the time of negotiations. For example, wage increases nego- THE WESTERN CANADIAN LUMBER WORKER pat between June 15, 1979 and June 14, 1980. Since housing sta will improve during this period of time the industry should be enjoying sufficient profits to pay a substantial increase in wages and benefits. It might be different if all negotiated increases for the contract year were paid in advance effective June 15, 1979, but this of course will not be the case. 2. The Industry has enjoyed record levels of retained earn- ings in 1977 and 1978. Most of these earnings resulted from the large volumes of lumber sold into the hot U.S. housing market during the past two years. Sales are made in U.S. dollar prices and these reached astronomical levels in 1978. When the high U.S. dollar prices were converted to larger numbers of depre- ciated Canadian dollars the sales and profits of B.C, wood pro- ducts companies set new records. For example, 40 to 45% of the $101 million of after-tax profits earned by MacMillan Bloedel during 1978 resulted from the exchange rate on the Canadian dollar. And finally, because B.C. lumber was exported to the United States the increased prices and profits were not res- tricted in any way by the Federal Anti-Inflation Controls Pro- gram. Unlike. products which were sold within Canada, products sold in export markets were completely excluded from coverage by the Controls Program. 3. The competitive advantage and windfall profits provided by the low exchange rate for the Canadian dollar should con- tinue through 1980. The Canadian dollar will probably not rise above 90 cents U.S. by December, 1979. 4. A time lag of 3 or 4 months is normally required before a housing start is converted into a finished home. Even though housing starts will be declining during 1979 the B.C. industry tiated under the B.C. Coast Master Agreement will be paid | Mi Re 4 will continue to ship lumber to bring about the completion of — starts made during the past few months. Because lumber inven- tories currently held in the pipeline by wholesalers and retail- ers are only about one-half of normal levels shipments should remain strong well into the summer of 1979. In summary, 1979 will see a downturn in U.S. housing starts. But there is no reason that the Industry cannot pay substantial increases in wages and. benefits during the upcoming negotia- tions. NEW CANADIAN CENTRE FOR HEALTH & SAFETY OPENED FROM THE HOUSE Mr. Douglas, NDP-MP speaking in the House of Com- By VICTOR RABINOVITCH plex. Its basic governing body positive ideas. CLC Health & is the Council of Governors What is the Potential? Safety Officer with 38 members — 11 from The potential, then, is great. OTTAWA (CPA) — After close to three years of talking and planning, the federal gov- ernment’s new initiative in workplace health and safety has finally got off the ground. The Canadian Centre for Oc- cupational Health and Safety was Officially opened at a two- day meeting in early February in Ottawa. The first meeting of the Centre’s Executive Board followed. The Centre has the potential to make a major contribution towards curing the health and safety crisis in Canada. However, despite the years of preparation and build-up, theprecise-goals of the new Centre remain vague and un- certain. Many union members in the health and safety field are especially concerned to learn if the Centre will genuinely contribute to improving working conditions or whether it will become just another expensive conservative road block. Who Runs it? : The decision making structure of the Centre is com- labour, 11 from. management and 16 from provincial and federal governments. There is also an executive board with nine members — three from labor, three from management, and three from government. The keyadministration person for the Centre will be its full time President. This post, subject to be filled by the Cabinet, is still vacant. The other full-time position is the Chairman of the Council of Governors. This position is now held by J. Howard Currie, a long serving civil servant from the Department of Labour. It is clear from. the numbers that labour is in a minority position within the Centre. But it is not an impossible position. There are some government representatives who are favourable to developing strong initiatives for the im- provement of health and safety and come employer re- presentatives have also in- dicated that they are open to The Centre can establish a coherent national and _ inter- national information system on hazards, with ready access to any citizens throughout the country. It can conduct research itself or provide research funds so that many of the unknown areas in working conditions can become better understood. Above all, it can create a commitment to aggressive activity and help break down - the smug do-nothing attitudes of some provincial govern- ments and many employers. Strong Labour Voice Neces- sary - But maintining a strong labour voice within the Centre is essential is this new body is to avoid reinforcing the worst practices and prejudices on the Canadian health and safety scene. For instance, what ‘‘bias” will the Centre adopt? Will it reaily interpret so-called Scientific data in such a way as to do nothing so that powerful economic interests or the academic establishment will not be upset? should be ashamed! ashamed! Anti-worker myths are still alive and strong in Canada. Will the new Centre try to establish close financial and administrative links with anti- labour ‘‘voluntary safety organizations?’”’ Or will it choose to direct its support towards the established labour movements and towards gov- ernments and employers who’ prove they want to create better working conditions? The myth of “professional experitse’’ is particularly virulent these days with some doctors, lawyers and engineers claiming that only they know enough to deal with health and safety. Will the new Centre reinforce this myth by pushing for a dominant role by ‘expert mons on the current oil crisis: So let us be careful before embarking on these ideological discussions. On the eve of an election the Tory party is psychopathic on the subject of Petro-Canada. They are psychotic about the whole idea of public ownership. They have spent most of the time in the last few days pimping for the oil companies. Some hon. Members: Order! Mr. Andre: Imagine that coming from a minister. You Mr. Douglas: If I were doing the pimping I would be professionals?’’ Or will it pro- mote the fact that workers themselves are experts who need more knowledge and power to cure sick work- places? Which Way to Go? The direction the new Centre will take is not yet clear. It may turnout to be a genuine ally in the fight for better conditions. It is certainly possible that the new Centre will 5 provide . good services. But the creation _ of the Centre will not make the _ job of union activists any easier. If anything, unionists — must become even more aware _ and vigilant to ensure that this sophisticated body is used the benefit of those who su from bad working condit