| WORLD - ‘Treaty ‘violations’ a U.S. smokescreen Persistent charges by the Reagan administration that __ the USSR has been ‘‘cheating’’ on arms control agree- | ments are unsubstantiated, according to a report issued by the authoritative Centre for Defence Information ° (CDI) in Washington. The Reagan White House has officially alleged that an “expanding pattern of Soviet violations or possible vio- lations of arms control agreements has raised serious _ doubts about the reliability of the USSR asa negotiating _ partner’’. A list of specific accusations has been present- ed to the media — where it seems to have acquired the authority of Scripture — but has never been actively pursued in any bilateral negotiating forum with the Soviets, such as the Standing Consultative Commission EA SEC), _ These public allegations have been cited by the _ Reagan administration as proof that arms control treaties are “‘unverifiable’’, and that without almost Utopian standards of inspection the Soviets cannot be trusted to | keep any agreements. ____“‘Assertions that the U.S. cannot detect Soviet cheat- ing, and that the Soviets consistently violate existing treaties, serve a number of political ends,” says the Centre for Defence Information report. ‘‘They weaken public support for arms control, raise doubts about the | merits of current and proposed treaties, and justify fai- _ lure toreach new arms agreements. Secrecy surrounding -_ intelligence gathering techniques and restricted access to _ the data gathered facilitate this manipulation of public opinion’. Reagan has specifically mentioned ‘‘verification dif- 2) ficulties” to account for his administration's refusal to 0 negotiate a comprehensive test ban, an accord on chemi- 1, cal and biological weapons and a halt to Star Wars re- / search. ~ 4 The CDI report notes, however, that ‘‘Soviet leaders _ have indicated a willingness to accept on-site inspection as part of improved verification measures”’. And in his recent set of stunning arms control initiatives, Soviet leader Gorbachev went far toward meeting even the most stringent American demands, including on-site in- -_ spection of research laboratories as part of a Star Wars agreement. , As muchas such Soviet concessions may be politically welcome, the CDI report observes, they are technically | unnecessary. ‘‘Continuing advances in surveillance and _ reconnaissance technology have allowed the United States to monitor closely the development, testing, pro- News _ Analysis Fred W: eir says. ‘‘A treaty banning flight testing of new missiles, aircraft and space weapons could be confidently verified with existing surveillance systems Technical capabilities exist today to monitor a complete and total ban on nuclear testing with great confidence”’. As for the allegations that the USSR has violated past arms control treaties, the report says that these are ‘‘either largely unsubstantiated or arise from ambiguities in the wording of treaties’’. For example: e The Reagan administration has accused the Soviet Union of ‘‘probably violating’ the 1974 Threshold Test Ban Treaty, which limits underground nuclear tests to a maximum of 150 kilotons of explosive force. Although this treaty has never been ratified by the U.S. Congress, Reagan has cited Soviet ‘‘cheating”’ on itas a reason for not re-opening talks on a complete and comprehensive . test ban. This is of particular importance at the moment, since the Soviet government is striving to keep open the possi- bility of negotiating just such a ban. A unilateral moratorium on nuclear explosions announced by Gor- bachev last August has now been extended by a further three months. : “The allegation that the USSR has violated the Threshold Test Ban Treaty,”’ says Dr. Lynn Sykes of Columbia University, one of the foremost geologists in the U.S., ‘‘are based, in my estimation and that of many seismologists, solely on an incorrect calibration formula. When the correct methodology is used, it is evident that the Soviet Union has not cheated on the Threshold Treaty”’. : Moreover, notes CDI, ‘‘if the U.S. would ratify the Threshold Treaty and exploit the exchange of nuclear test data it provides for, the dispute could be settled. The Reagan administration, however, refuses to submit the treaty for ratification and uses this alleged Soviet viola- tion as justification for not resuming negotiations on a Comprehensive Test Ban .. . In fact, a treaty banning all certain threshold because of the inherent lack of pre- cision in estimating the yield of nuclear explosions’’. e Another major charge is that the USSR has been - building an anti-ballistic missile radar installation near Krasnoyarsk in Siberia in ** violation’ of the ABM Trea- ty. However, notes the CDI study, *‘a 1984 classified CIA report concludes that this is not an ABM radar because it is poorly oriented to track incoming U.S. ICBMs, will operate at a frequency vulnerable to nuclear effects, and has no nearby interceptor missiles or other ABM-related items . . . British intelligence has also concluded that it is ‘unlikely’ that the radar can serve in an ABM battle management role.” Soviet spokesmen have stated the installation is re- lated to their peaceful space program, but have never- theless offered to halt construction on the radar if the U.S. stops upgrading two of its own early warning radars in Britain and Greenland. “What we must-avoid,”’ concludes CDI, *‘is putting the verification cart before the arms control horse. It is self-defeating to seek iron-clad assurances of treaty compliance in advance of even sitting down to negotia- tions. “The technology is already well in hand to monitor and verify arms treaties. All that appears to be lackingis _ the political will and seriousness of purpose to-negotiate an end to this deadly nuclear competition.” More victims in Iran ‘Two more members of the Central Committee of the Tudeh (Communist) Party of Iran have been murdered in prison by the Islamic Republic’s repressive forces. Reza Shaltooki and Taghi Keymanesh are the latest victims of the fascist terror unleashed against the Tudeh Party since February, 1983. This brings to a total of four members of the party’s leadership, murdered, in addition to hun- dreds more officials and activists killed by the re- gime. : In January, 1984, Islamic Republic tribunals is- sued prison sentences totalling more than 700 years and 10 death sentences against 101 Tudeh members in a three-day trial during which defendants were refused any legal assistance. Thousands of other Tudeh members remain imprisoned without trial, awaiting similar fates. pane _ duction, and deployment of Soviet nuclear weapons,” it nuclear tests would be easier to verify than one setting a | INTERNATIONAL FOCUS Tom Morris _| Firepower galore, | no common sense It seems to be the kind of gung-ho stuff Reagan likes. His**show of resolve”’ in the Gulf of Sidra off Libya’s coast {| is, without doubt, quite a | show. The U.S. fleet consists | of the aircraft carriers Coral | Sea and Saratoga escorted by _ | some 23 other warships includ- | ing the new missile cruiser | Yorktown. It carries with it | firepower is awesome, as must x _ be the bill for such a display. __ Administration contentions that the naval maneuvers are | 170 fighter aircraft. Total _ “‘routine’’ were expected, but the cat-and-mouse game of challenging Libya’s 300-mile claim to the Gulf of Sidra by steaming along the line and probing with fighter-aircraft showed the exercise to be what it really is: provocative. “If they don’t react, we've exposed them as paper tigers”’, beamed a Pentagon official. How terribly brave of him. The U.S. is just itching to take a whack at the Gaddafi government especially from behind such a formidable naval screen and so far from Main Street America. Real. macho, cowboy behaviour, but very dangerous. Options such as bombing Libyan military bases and nu- clear reactors are being examined in Washington. Others, such as prodding Israel to do the dirty work, protected | by U.S.’ floating armor and aided by its radar screens, are also in the works. Israeli mili- tary aircraft, forexample, have been redeployed to a NATO base in Sicily for just such a contingency. Having appointed itself Libya’s judge and jury, Wash- ington wants dearly to assume the role of executioner. Getting it in the mail A two block section of Mas- sachusetts Avenue in Wash- ington, DC, may soon be re- named Winnie and Nelson Mandela Avenue, according to _ legislation before city council, Mayor Marion Barry told an ‘anti-apartheid gathering last month. Renaming of streets for fam- ous persons, of course, has been going on for decades. Trail, B.C., once had a Tim Buck Boulevard; Paris and Mexico City have John F. Kennedy Streets and Brant-. ford, Ontario nearly had a Ho Chi Minh Trail in the early 1970s. In Washington’s case, how- ever, the sting will be imme- diate: among other buildings on the street is that of the Em- bassy of South Africa. Stoking the fires of war The Reagan White House will ask Congress to boost aid to Nicaraguan contras this year: by $73-million, bringing the ‘sum for this dirty operation to $100-million. Continued covert action aid to Afghan terrorists, a reported $470-million per year, is ex- pected to be approved without difficulty. In addition, the present ultra-right campaign to tout the South African puppet Jonas Savimbi as the saviour of Angola is picking up. Savimbi will visit Reagan this week. Money will surely follow. The administration will ask Congress to double military aid to Philippines and Guatemala and increase the arms package for Honduras and El Salvador. Dictatorships in Turkey and Pakistan will remain high on the list of ‘‘aid’’ recipients. The biggest hog at the trough is still Israel. Its usual $3-bil- lion will rise to $3.75-billion this year to maintain that state as Reagan’s Mideast cop. In all, Reagan is. pushing a $16.3-billion ‘‘foreign aid” package designed to keep right wing regimes well armed and lift the fortunes of various kil- ler bands in Latin America, Af- rica, and Asia. If you add in the hidden bud- get for the U.S. Special Forces (Reagan’s elite hit squad), the millions spent on psycholo- gical weapons such as Radio Free Europe, Voice of Ameri- ca, Radio Marti and the U.S. Information Service — not to mention. the CIA’s bloated budget — the sum is astro- nomical. All this while three million Americans are homeless. PACIFIC TRIBUNE, FEBRUARY 5, 1986 « 9