!The Fall

‘This week:

By Tod Strachan

You may hot have heard of
Down Effect", but
living in the heart of a forestry
based economy you. should have.
If your income relies — either
directly or indirectly on the forest
industry -- and in Terrace almost
everyone’s does -- the Fall Down

.. Effect could cost you your job. .

- In basic terms, the Fall Down
Bifect simply means we’re runn-

ing out of trees and if something
‘isn’t done soon fallers and skidder.

Operators could be about as

. Visible in the Northwest in a few

years as the brontosaurus.
-There are a lot of reasons for

the Fall Down Effect but most of

them are details for historians to

- deal with. What's really impor-

tant, though, is for the average
person to understand what the
Fall Down Effect is and what, if
anything, can be done about it.

Using ignorance as an excuse,
anyone can stand almost anywhere
in the Terrace area, survey the
horizon, and conclude that the
experts are wrong. As far as the
eye can see in any direction, there
are thousands, probably millions,
of trees... it’s quite apparent the
experts are wrong. It's quite
obvious that we haven’t even
begun to tap this resource and: by
the time we reach the end of one
tract of land, the young trees we

see today at the beginning of

another will be mature.
If this is what you believe, take
a closer look. Forget about the

| The Fall Down Effect

‘obvious . beauty and. apparent.
wealth of the valley and focus on.

a single tree.. What you see may

come’ as a_ shock. Focus on.

another tree and examine its
potential wealth. Try another.

Examine 10 trees, and«on an.
average you'll find that eight of
them are too old to be-of any real.
value using our current marketing
and manufacturing strategies. And |:

the other two are too young.

Your first casual survey of our
timber resource was wrong. In
reality, the forests you were
viewing were of very little value
at all. The resource you thought
you saw, the never-ending abun-
dance of wealth, hasn’t existed for
years. And if you hadn’t taken a
closer look, you may never have
known. Never have known, that
is, until it was too late.

Even with this information,
though, many people still aren’t
convinced. How about another
test? Forget about surveying the

_ horizon, take a look at the high-

ways. On weekdays, you can
Stand anywhere along a main
highway and count a fully loaded
logging truck almost every minute
of the day. This is little proof
there’s any ‘kind of problem in the
industry... let alone an
called the Fall Down Effect.

Here again, though perhaps
a Closer. look might be in order.
Many of the logs on these trucks
are overmature and destined for
the pulp market. A few’ of the
logs might have somé valué to
the sawmill, but the fact is that
only about 38 to 51 percent of

the ‘log will actually end up as
lumber; the rest will be turned
into pulp or hog fuel. - |

_ ° This, then, is the Fall
Down Effect: a gap in the genera-
tions of trees that, using today’s
methods, has left us with very
few harvestable trees, Trees under
80 years of age are immature.
They’re not ready to cut. Those
over 200 years are overmature,
and as they continue to age they
lose their volume of useable wood
to rot, insects and disease. The
average tree in the Terrace area
tanges in age from 250 to 400
years, The valuable trees, the ones
between 80 and 200 years, are
virtually absent, .
~The events that brought us to

‘this particular dilema are quite
ig different than mariy people im-

agine. Some might surmise: "The
loggers went out and cut them
all." But this isn’t necessarily
true. Mother nature herself carries
some of the blame: Many forest
fires occur naturally and are a

part of the ‘ natural Scheme ‘of -

things.
When an area of timber is burn-

The view from
Victoria —

by John Pifer

VICTORIA — In the final
analysis, the Social Credit
defectors from caucus were left
with no real option other than |
to return, somewhat sheepishly,
to.the fold. a

MLA’s Graham Bruce, Doug
Mowat and Dave Mercier tried -
to put on a brave face last
week, saying that enough had ':
changed or improved in the
leadership style of Premier Bil!
Vander Zaim to prompt that .
return.

But the truth is that their -
constituents and party officials
had overwhelmingly urged
them to forget their differences

. with Vander Zalm and to go

back to caucus.

The truth is that their bold,
brave move in October (along
with Columbia River MLA
Duane Crandall, who returned
last month) has proved to have

been pointless, and totally in-

effective in achieving their goal
of a serious evaluation of
Vander Zalm’s leadership.

The truth is that the basic
reality which struck the Three
Amigos after the premier’s |

decision not to resign, was that
. there-was no political future
for them outside of the caucus.

At his press conference in

Duncan, Bruce said the ques-
tion of leadership ‘“‘has been

resolved, in that the premier

has indicated...
| ing and will be fighting through
to the next election.

that he is stay-

‘*T don’t think that we ever

stated that the leader had to
resign. My concern was that.we
as.a caucus start dealing with |

things in a more realistic
fashion than what we had
been,” he added.

Asked whether Vander Zalm
was electable, Bruce ducked
giving a direct answer, saying

. only that Social Credit was the

only electable free-enterprise
party. .

- Yes, this is the same Graham
Bruce who just two months ago
said that if the premire decided |
to stay, ‘‘the risk to free enter-
prise will be very,: very great. It

_ could well mean the end of the.

government. It could well mean
the end of this party.”
When the four MLA’s left

on Oct. 3, the party had suf-
fered its fifth straight by-
election defeat in 18 months,
all with Vander Zalm’s leader-
ship as a prime factor.

On Dec. 13, it lost another
one, again in a former Socred
stronghold, and with a strong
candidate. On Dec. I4 ata

. $100-a-plate fund-raising dinner

in Duncan, the four MLA’s
said the party ‘‘needs a leader
who not only listens, but ac-
tually hears.’’

Two months later, all of that
was forgotten, or conveniently
ignored, replaced by political
reality, and expediency.

The revolution is over.

As I stated last month when
it was introduced, there is
much to praise, even to savor,
in British Columbia’s proposal
to resolve the Meech Lake Ac-
cord impasse.

And it is encouraging to see
that after some initial negative
reaction in B.C. and in eastern

Canada, it is starting to receive .

more credibility. Even high-
ranking Ottawa mandarins are

ed, the way is paved for. new
growth, In most interior - forests

- this cycle is repeated ona regular —
basis and: you find ‘Telatively
young but mature - forests. In

coastal regions, however, there is

- more moisture and fires occur less

frequently. This is ‘why you find
older growth forests in areas such
aS Ours.

The forest industry, though,

isn’t entirely without blame. Past
_ forest practices have compounded

the Fall Down Effect -- but we
are not yet left entirely without
hope

changed from 80:20 to 65:35
there may be a chance to mini-
mize the effect. Good manage-
ment and silviculture methods
could reduce the age at which a
tree is harvestable from 120 to 80
years and increase the productivity
of our forests by a third. At the
extreme end of the scale, there
are some schools of thought that
believe the. _ best thing we could
do is to get rid of everything we
have and start over from the
beginning.

Before any real decisions
can be made, though, some
important questions have to be
answered. Primarily, in addition to
nature, what are the contributing
factors? Should we blame our
policies, attitudes and philoso-

If the ratio of over-mature to -
-under-mature .trees.. could be:

‘phies? Should the forest ‘tenure »
‘system be. changed? Are there

better management tools available

that would allow us to do.a better

job?. Could we improve on
research facilities and professional
training programs for forest
workers? Are there other local
Species that can be utilized in the

interim? Can our manufacturing ©

facilities diversify their products
and utilize more than 38 percent
of a log?

There is no single magi-
cal answer. Instead, there are
many partial solutions that must
work together if we're to have
any chance at all. If all the
solutions could be found and
introduced simultaneously, in fact,
there is still a chance that the Fall

Down Effect can be eliminated

entirely. Next week, we'll look
more closely at some of the
causes of the Fall Down Effect.

Forestry Insights is a regular
_ Weekly feature in the Terrace
Review, written by staff reporter
Tod Strachan in consultation with
Regisiered Professional Foresters
Rod Arnold and Doug Davies.
The Terrace Review invites
readers to express their concerns
and viewpoints by writing to
Forestry Insights, care of the
Terrace Review, 4535 Greig Ave.,
Terrace, B.C. V8G 1M7.

saying that it could just fly.

This is a perfect example of
how gifted civil servants, such
as deputy to the premier, Frank
Rhodes and intergovernmental
advisor Jack MacDonald, show
the depth of their talent, intui-
tion and knowledge.

For it was they, along with
lawyers from the attorney-
general’s ministry and others,
who for several months ham-
mered out the five-point ‘‘un-
bundling’’ of the accord, in an

- attempt to make it palatable to

all provinces.

That preparation was done
with Ottawa’s knowledge,
perhaps even blessing, but
without the feds’ direct input, I
am assured,

There have been rumors and
speculation that B.C, agreed to

‘make the proposal on behalf of

the Tories to keep Meech alive,
in exchange for future favors.
The thinking went that
Mulroney knew Meech was
doomed without some revamp,
but it was impossible, political-
ly, for it to stem from him.
Enter Bill Vander Zalm,
perhaps the last place Cana-
dians would expect a solid na-.

tional policy proposal to
blossom from. Well, it’s a neat
conspiracy theory, but no, it

doesn’t stand up. This is B.C.’s _

plan.

One other thing the Meech
flurry is proving is that in the
minds of B.C.’s general public,
it’s not a “‘sexy’’ issue, prob-
ably not even a Vote-getting
one.

The media, especially i in On-
tario and Quebec, revel in
blowing it out of proportion,
and we in B.C. meekly follow
suit. Don’t get me wrong; it is
important; but the country will
not crumble on June 23 if
agreement has not been thrash-
ed out.

Parting Thought: One of the
most effective and valuable az.-
nual fund-raising events for
charity in the province arrives
this weekend. The Variety Club
Telethon on BCTV Saturday.
and Sunday (Feb. 24 and 25)
raises millions of dollars for
hundreds of special children.
The province-wide TV hookup

. Needs pledges from all of you.

Watch and contribute, 0.K.7

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