Ce BERLIN @ ROME WASHINGTON CAIRO HAVANA e TOKYO e BUENOS AIRES (ence Demographic outburst! MOSCOW In one of its recent issues the Literaturnaya Gazeta (Literary Gazette) carried an interesting article by Boris Urlanis, Doctor of Economics, headlined, “Are There Any Population Prob- lems?” The chief merit of the article is that it is directed against the demagogic, over-simplified un- derstanding of population prob- lems. Although the economic SCl- ences and sociology are now on _the upgrade in our country, there is still a tendency to re- Bard the questions of demogra- phy as something not quite Scientific, something that de- Serves attention only in a nega- tive aspect as part of criticism of the Malthusian theory, if at all. Yet, problems of population do exist in reality and to under- estimate them means to weaken Our economic, political and ideo- logical efforts. At the Second World Popula- tion Conference held. in. Bel- Brade, which discussed nearly 500: reports submitted in ad- vance, nobody denied that the increasing growth of world po- Pulation gives rise-to certain problems which cannot be ignor- ed. : s% Take the problem of fresh water for example. It is well known that the shortage of fresh Water makes itself increasingly felt in many large cities and in- dustrial areas of the world. There is no danger,, of course, that further growth’ of popula- tion will leave these cities and areas without water at all. Quickly developing science and technology help to find new Sources of fresh water. But, on the other hand, there is no ground to deny the existence of the problem. . Particularly .grave difficulties are caused by the rapid increase of population in many countries of Asia, Africa and Latin Ame- tica. The demographic changes that have been taking place there for the past 10-20. years Were so rapid that sometimes they are aptly described as a “demographic outburst.” What POPULATION EXPLOSION Opposing the theories of - Malthus, Marxists have long maintained that the resources of the world, if properly expolited, are suf- ficient to sustain addition- al billions of people. Density does not neces- Sarily mean overpopula- tion, if a country is rich in natural resources and high- ‘ly industrialized. But in an underdeveloped country lacking in natural resour- ces, overpopulation is a real problem. (From a Tribune article of June 21, 1965) ‘ NM os = a2 See vcncece eeu dd 2 jf c Pe ee sg seer 5 } pdm OLE? Sago BEIT 2: ene PD RRB BS ° ¥ 4 ‘ This article by Soviet econo Second World Populat approach Marxists are fa The Belgrade conference f solutions of the population pro countries. mist Y- GUZEVATYI, delegate to the ion Conference in Belgrade, sh king to the population explosion. shows the serious ocussed its attention on a search for blems facing the under - developed Soviet scientists believe that changes in the social structure of the their economic and cultural progress combined developing countries, with a definite, effective demographic policy, will make it possible for the population of our planet to avoid the disasters predicted by Mal- thusians. is the essence of these changes? Prior to gaining independence the colonies and semi-colonies had a moderate or low rate in population growth, since the high birth rate, typical of these countries, was counter-balanced aig iat, SE SO Pe eee: “yo S20 (VOD: by a high death rate. As a result of hunger, poverty and unsanit- ary living conditions all sorts of grave diseases spread easily. The abolition of colonial re- gimes .enabled the newly-free countries to take measures to : Poet lalate any iy A Feo ‘improve sanitary conditions and health services. These measures and the introduction of new, ef- fective anti-epidemic medicines sharply reduced the death rate (in Ceylon, for instance, the successful struggle against mala- world’s population of three billion goes to. bed hungry every night. By the year 2000 Asia will account for about 62 percent of a world population _of six billion; Europe - and the USSR, 15 percent; the Ameri- cas, 15 percent; and Africa 8 percent. © Today half the - ria cut the death rate by 4 a percent in the course of thre years). This decrease in th death rate, with the birth rat remaining as high as ever, caus ed a sharp increase in popule tion. Of course, the rapid growth c population is not a calamity i itself, as the Malthusians allege | Under favorable social condi tions, given sufficient capitz investments, an increase in pc pulation, far from hamperin the economic and cultural deve! opment, on the contrary has . stimulating effect because peo ple, working people are the mai productive force of society. But the fact is that the devel oping countries have inherite: from colonialism a backwar economy with conservativ forms of land ownership ani land. tenture, with primitiv: agro-technics. Under these circumstances — with capital and skilled labor ii very short supply the populatio: began to increase at a highe pace than production, agricul tural production in particular. Because of the high birth — rate the army of young worker: grows, as a rule, quicker that the number of vacanciés, and thi growing demand for housing schools and hospitals cannot bi adequately met in time. In other words, the rapid in crease in population in many de — veloping countries creates seri ous economic difficulties ani this is not because of the “uni versal law of nature’ inventei by Malthusians but because o the general economic backward | ness of these countries resultin; from historically transient socia and economic causes. : Parallel to economic develop ment plans, the governments o a number of states have official ly, adopted ‘‘family planning pro grams” to reduce the birth rate Such “programs” have bee adopted by the governments -o India, Pakistan, Ceylon, th UAR, Tunisia, Turkey, Chile an some other countries. It should be stressed tha these “programs” by no mean envisage any legislative restric tions of the size of families, an encroachment on the right o parents to have as many childre: as they like. _At the Belgrade Conferenc all delegates were unanimous i: the opinion that birth contre measures could be useful fo Stabilization of the economi situation in many developin; -countries where population in creases rapidly. Changes in the way of life family traditions and the like i: the: course of revolutionar — transformation of society are a: — inevitable and gradual process This is why, in view of specifi: difficulties experienced by deve ~ loping countries, birth contre measures may be of certain-im — portance in the period of radica socio-economic transformations — but only on the basis of thes: transformations and in a ance with the objective social re quirements resulting from them January 21, 1966 ~PACIFIC TRIBUNE—Page 5 * “