"Editor's Note: i
The. following. i

important speech: given
‘before the ' Financial
Executives ‘Institute’ in.
Montreal, last month, by

Armstrong, Tr.
Armstrong is the
President and Chief
Executive of Imperial
Oil, Limited.

We should warn our
Herald readers that
_Teports on the total
‘amount of oil and gas

eserves, and the amount |

; recoverable, vary from
corporation. Similarly,
no two “authorities” are
able -to agree on the

Amount’ of our energy °

feeds ‘for the future,

“Today, oil and natural
gas provide about two
thirds of- the energy
Canada uses. By the end
of the century. this may
drop to fifty per cent, as

nada turns more to its
coal: ‘reserves.

“The full text of Arm-

: strong’ s address is on file
at the Herald office, and
‘may be seen on request.

: SUMMARY:

‘There are differing
forecasts on energy
supply-demand, but basic
fae is Canada is going to
continue to need very
eee supplies of energy.

age 2)

H the ia the swing fuel in

the. ane er BY supply-

picture. It is

in + Save to fill the

tween demand for

, and supply of

éfergy ( from ' ‘other
es. (Page 3

astern, Canada . will

‘gontinue to be highly

spendent on foreign oil

rough at least the
de of the | eighties.

lage 4)
toda spare crude oil

capacity in
he once world is about

wre per cent. ‘Unforegeen ;

By the year 2031 one in
five ‘Canadians may be
senior citizens, according
to! a study included in
ial Security, . National
rograms,  1978,.
stics: Canada, hand.
ok on social security in

1970s: -
' Mn the early part of this
- century, the study
those over 65
fepresented five per cent
fie population. Now
t. age er group accounts
{or nine per cent. By the
ty the century it may
nake up 12 per cent and
ithin-the two following
ides top 20 per cent.
'eOn- the other hand,
children of up to 17
yesented over 40 per
Eire early in the century.
{present children ac-
Ake for 32 per cent. But
AR the turn of the century
leit: proportion may
Teetine to just over 20 per
- sent and by 2031 perhaps
ia s.Jow as 17 per cent.
= SOCIAL SECURITY
Rafat “A population
‘the’ magnitude
ust aesoribed will not fail
“impact on Canada’s
ovial ‘security system,”
_- gecording . to the
Statistics. ‘Canada - study
make will have to

is. although the artlay
on. ps. tho will require &
hee pro portion of of
. ational s ng,
re ‘aged wil rise sub-
’ stantially.
a Increasingly: higher
Eee ae overn-

ent: budgets will goto
ansfet payments to- the

der. on aaa More up

have. to.

meee in’ hospi pial, ;

onvalescent homes,

“hursing homes and senior:

‘voltizens’ homes. .

~ 1 hese increases will he “pe
os: than-what might:

Jating the changes to

out: that by 2031

heal

summary of a "highly.

supplies of

Welt ora ore
senior citizens:

Nevertheless, due to

Of bin

expected:in “terms ‘of . 1
tal population {icrease. re.

the numbers -of working: “National Programs,

ge population, the study ©

_ Workdng-s
tach: senior: - eitizen _
. tea ere seven at the’

' interruptions, or an

upward shift in demand
could wipe out this sur-
plus in no.time. (P4) —.
Current data indicate ,
that new fields found in.
Alberta will fail far short .
of filling the gap between ,
domestic oil production .

and demand. (page 5)

New gas
discoveries in Alberta,
and reduced .demand,
have changed the per-
ception of gas supply in
the next decade. The’
possibility of shortfalls in‘
as from
western Canada durirfg
the early to mid-1980s has -
diminished considerably.

Uncertainty over when
existing gas reserves will
be connected to market .
has slowed the pace of
exploration in the
Mackenzie Delta-
Beaufort region.
However, in the long
term this frontier area
cannot help but play an
important role in the
energy supply scene, not

only because of gas but

because of its oil.poten-
tial, (P6-7)

According to current
information, Arctic
Islands appear to be
essentially a gas-prone -
region. Exploration. is
continuing in an attempt

_to prove up _threshold -
“reserves (20 to 30 trillion ©

cubic feet) uired to
support a a -pipeline from

"Northeast Atlantic off
Newfoundland, Labrador
and Baffin Island may
represent’ Canada’s best:
hope of finding najor new

‘peserves of ‘conventional: ~,

oill, However, assumin
discoveries, because

‘technical considerations |

it will be early ‘1990s
before oil could begin to —
move to market from this

Although ; only. “a

‘

Pe te me

the sharp. decline of
children as a proportion
opulation, the
lependency.
and ald to
ring-age

rate of youn
the: wor

the. present century.”
BURDEN DIFFERS

“Dependency rates, of
course, provide only a.

crude measurement of
burden’’ says . the
Statistics Canada study.
“No attempt is made
here to equate the burden

“Of one. senior citizen with: |
“the burden‘ of one child. |
There are. differences in ~

the type and amount of.
help each would require

There are’ sometimes ff.
. differences in the social -

arrangement for
providing the same help.
“For example, children

are usually fed, clothed, i

and sheltered ‘by their
parents. But members of
the older population are, —
by and large, expected to
ob ‘after themselves,
and, if necessary, wi

financial assistance from \. -

the . state.

‘Thus, transfer

payments play ‘an! im-
‘in’ the |
finances’ of. many older

ortant part

TSONs, ’ ;
Peat the same time,

there is a much heavier §

call in medical, hospital .

and related services: by .

the older population than
by other: Population

Othe older’ population,

-which currently: m es . i

nine per cent. of |
total: population, con-
sumed 20 per cent of: the

available patient days in J

1974, If: the same: usage
prevails: in 2031,. older
ople alone will need 87°

mal on patient days or @.
r. cent of present §

ani mum. _ capacit, we
Social’: Security,

($8.25"° in
Catalogue No. 86-201, 770

pages) is’ available from
Pu licatlons | * .
Distribution, _ Statistics’.

ore.

1978
Canad da,

Canada, Ottawa, K1A a |

Impe rial oil president —
‘has good and bad news:

“fraction of ‘estimated

lac in | western

., Canada’ s heavy oil fields.

and bitumen deposits can
be recovered with today’s
technology, the very size
of these d bosits means
they are ~ literally

- Canada’s.ace in the hole
. When. Jt comes to energy

‘supply. (Page 8)

Some 50,000: barrels. a
day of synthetic crude oil
is being produced by
GCOS from bitumen
deposits at Athabasca;
by mid-year Syncrude
will ~ start
upgraded crude oil from
these deposits; Shell has
announced plans to build
a third plant in the
Athabasca .area; it was
announced at the recent
conference of _ first
ministers it is the in-
tention: to build a heavy
oi] upgrading plant in the
Lloydminster area;
Imperial has’ made ap-
plication to build a
complex at Cold Lake

‘that. will produce up to

145,000 barrels a day of
crude oil.

Bitumen extraction and
upgrading complexes
must continue to be built
unless Canada is to

‘population; will be “much. f a
-Jower over-.the next 50
. years, than ever before in

“become

ade barrels of ‘oil in’

-acreage

producing.

‘nereasingly
dependent on foreign all.
{Page °.10):

When a country spends
money for foreign oil it
get oi] — period. When it
spends money to develop .
its own oil resurces it gets
major stimulation of the -
economy and a reduction |
in the outflow of dollars
for imported oil. (Page 10)

In the. Canadian ener, yo

scene, Imperial Oil’

‘position is unique. The’
company is Canada's -

largest producer of crude

oil, and earlier programs :

enable ‘it: to achieve

‘ above-average

production rates during
peak-lemand _ periods.
Imperial has a good

Western’ Alberta and
British Columbia. In the
western Arctic the
compa ny has three and
one-half trillion cubic feet
of natural gas reserves.

With other companies -

Imperial is exploring the

‘waters that lie off the
The.
compnay has done ex-

Aretic . islands.
tensive seismic ex-
ploration in northern
Atlantic waters and when
jurisdictional and

regulate roblems are
rd Bt will be.

resoived,
drilling there. (Page ‘11-

Imperial has made

imaportant discoveries of
coal and recently an-

nounced a uranium -

discovery in Saskat-
chewan. (Page 12)

Statistics, a

position in.

THE HERALD, Monday, April 10, 78 PAGE| 5°

- Shopping malls, department stores
may be heading for serious trouble

. Toronto — Department
stores ‘and mall mer:
chants are heading for ‘a
‘serious sales slump and a

s rash of bankruptcies,
“unless they keep up with

changing ' consumer
market
research
predicted at a shopping
centre industry. con-
ference here...

.-Donald Rogers,
manager - oF market
research for Hudson’s
Bay Company, told
nearly 200 registrants at
an International Councit

of Shopping Centres:

seminar:

. “*Markets. » and
customers are changing
rapidly, and department

stores can no. longer -

‘depend on _— sheer
population growth to keep
sales and profits up. Mall
merchants are riding
along on the coat tails of
the department stores,

-and they'll bet burned too

if they don't make these
adjustments,
;“Managements are so
preoccupied with ‘sales
and, profits they are
ignoring the external
environment.
Managements can no

- longer maintain their

expert.

share of the market by , Said.

blindly opening stores
with a cookie-cutter
sameness, and expect
customers.to wander in
and spend $450 per square
foot," he said. ,

. Mr, Rogers commented

on several trends:
..~ilepartment store
sales, as a percentage af
total retail trade, are
declining, as is the
percentage of ‘disposable
income to gross national
procuct,
..— retail markets in
Canada are becoming
seriously overstored and
eversaturated ‘as
developers scramble for
the last opportunities in
mature markets, . °

--—a_ levelling off in
suburban markets and
intensifying competition

is creating a “survival of

the fittest’? atmosphere
for regional shopping
centres.

» Department stores
may have to put in more
“token’’ departments and
shopping centre owners
may have to put up with
less profitable stores te
broaden . the mer-
chandising, mix and
maintain their share of a

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changing market, he .

.It may also be difficult
for stores to decide what
products to carry, and in
what depth, but ‘that
choice must be deter-
mined by consumer
demands, even if some
lines are not always
profitable, Mr. Rogers
concluded. -

A fellow panelist,
Hermann. J. Kircher,
president of Toronto-
based Larry Smith &
Associates, said about 50
per cent of the people ina
suburban trading area

years. = w
The nature of that
changing’ population

fluctutates significantly
in sizes of households,
employ ment ‘and ‘income
patterns, attitudes, tastes

, and lifestyles, he said,

which calls for ‘'con-
tinuously updated and.
thorough market
knowledge.’’

. Mr, Kircher suggested °
post-opening research to
get to know a centre's
customers, more . com-
prehensive research
within two years, and a
complete re-evaluation
within five years of.
opening.

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“A shopping centre

developer's and owner’s '

success was largely
dependent on the amount
and type Of new retall
space he developed. In
the future, his success
will much more depend
on the way he manages
what he controls,

“This change does not .

-only reflect the fact that
fewer developments will
take. place, but rather it
highlights the
significance of the
existing portfolios . te
which an addition of one

or two centres would not -

be as significant as in the
past,” he said.

GM SALES UP

OSHAWA, Ont. (CP) —
General Motors of
Canada Ltd. dealers sold
@ combined 49,820 cars

and trucks in March, an —

increase from. March,
1977 and within 33 units of
the record for the month
set in 1973. Car deliveries
of 35,859 exceeded last
year's March mark -of
35,396 by 5 per cent
despite’ one less selling
day. Truck deliveries ‘of
14, yi were within 130
units of the record March

‘level of 14,361 established
_ in. 197. ‘

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