Tara er eee

i .

Long-term forestry outlook

here continues to improve

Forecasts suggest we won't run out of wood, higher long-range cut possible

- By MALCOLM BAXTER
‘THE NEWS from the forest indus-
-try may not be too positive these
‘days, but things are looking a bit
‘brighter in terms of the long-term
‘wood supply,

: The good news comes in the form
of the latest Timber Supply Review
»(TSR) for (he Kalum timber supply
earea (TSA).

> It says cutting at the present rate
«can continue longer than expected.
-and that the eventual long tenn
‘sustainable annual allowable cut is
rhigher than projected im the last
review in 1994,

+ The review looks at what the an-
‘nual allowable cut (AAC) is now,
«projects the long term sustainable
AAC, and suggests how lo get from
‘here to there while avoiding major
‘shortages of timber in between.

* The long term sustainable AAC ©

‘means the volume of wood being
cut every year is matched by ihe in-
creased volume (growth) of stand-
ing timber in the district.

When the last TSR was carried '

out in 1994, the AAC at the time
was 480,000 cu.m.

‘ That analysis recommended im-
“mediately reducing it to 464,000
cihm, — the chief forester sub-
sequently did just that.

: And it projected it would have to
tbe reduced a further 10 per cent in
2004 and again in 2014 where it
-would level out at a sustainable cut
o£ 400,000 cu.m. annually.

_ The 1999 study’s so-called ‘“base
case’’ suggests the AAC could be
maintained at the current rate for
“the next 30 years.

“ And it has increased the long-
“term sustainable figure to 431,500
cum.

~ Not all the news is good, how-_

~ever, Maintaining the current har-
‘vest level for three decades would
-result in a “‘fall down’? in timber
ssupply 40-50 years from now when
: the cut would have to be reduced to
387,000 cu.m, and stay there for
: the next cight decades before rising

oe
AOD MEREDITH of the Kalurn Forest District stands with a map of the Kalum Timber Supply Area.

oT

There's been little public comment so far on the review of the area’s long-term harvesting rates.

to the long-term level.

It’s important to note the base
case is simply a projection of what
the consequences of certain actions
could be.

The final decision on setting the
AAC rests with chief forester Larry
Pedersen and he is in no way

Base case forecast for Kalum Timber Supply Area.
: current AAC of 3s CeO nent, eh er neg e
‘| §00 j 464,000 cubic metres a Ley, ‘;
18
. 5 400 long-term level of
a : 387,000 cubic neko 431,500 cubic metras
13 300 mid term evel
13
13
43 200
2 100
2
5
E%4 50 - 100 150 200 250
. Years from now

second
growth

success

credited

IS the —_ long-term
‘] sustainable cut now pegged seven
‘| per cent higher than it was five
‘years ago -— particularly when
4 the logging land base is now
5,000 hectares smaller than 1994?

One reason is a sharp shift in
‘T assessing the growing potential of
the land,

The 1994 review rated 44 per
[cent of the land base as having
| ‘poor’ site productivity.
.| However, at the time forest dis-

trict staff suggested the base case
underestimated the productivity
of replanted sites, particularly in
the Kitimat Valley, possibly by as
much as 50 per cent.

Since then studies comparing a
mature sland of hemlock agaiust
an adjacent culbock of second
growth has supported the staff’s
position,

A report on the survey noted the
site index used to estimate growth

yi

toe,

“ -| potential on replanted sites would
‘ef have to be adjusted upward
T’] “when the old-hemlock forest is |.

harvested and replaced with

:: | managed hemlock stands’’,
‘col The latest review has done just].
+ that, chopping the number of poor
2] sites to just 25 per cent of the
=.) land base,

“ | Upgrading sites means second

‘iP prowth trees will reach a her-|
~T vestable size more quickly than
a | was assumed in 1994 - with pre-

-"=I dictable results on the long term] .. responses have been sent to the

. hasn’t

projections.

obliged to follow the base case,

It is also worth noting that the
rationale behind setting the base
case was changed this time around.

In 1994 the objective was to
avoid ‘‘harvest shortfalls below the
long-term level”’,

This time the target was ‘“‘to
maintain the current harvest level...

_for as long as possible while avoid-

ing substantial timber supply dis-.

7 ruptions in.the future.”’

However, the review does does
offer a couple of alternatives which

change the short and medium term ©

picture,

One is <lose to the 1994 base case
in the short term, calling for a 10
per cent reduction in the AAC in
2009 and a further cut in 2019 to
401,400 cu.m, That rate would
then be maintained for 100 years
before rising to the long-term
sustainable figure,

The other scenario calls for an
immediate reduction of the AAC to
408,500 cu.m. where it would stay
until the long-term sustainable fig-

urc kicked in after 120 years.
Interestingly, even if the chief
forester chose to follow that last
option, it would not necessarily
translate into a short-term wood
supply crisis for the forest industry.
That’s because the actual amount
of wooed harvested from the TSA,
from 1995-1997 averaged only
387,000 cnm. a year. Not only is:
that well below the current AAC, it

_ ds also identical-to the ‘fall down??.

figure projected in the
review’s base case,
Another factor that has to be

latest

‘recognized is that the Kalum timber

supply area accounts for less than a
third of the AAC available to the
region’s forest industry — the com-
bined AAC for Skeena Cellulose’s
Tree Farm Licence t and West
Fraser’s FFL 41 is 1.07 million
cum.

The public has until Monday,

May 31 to submit comments on the:
review. They can be sent to the
Kalum Forest District office in Ter-
race,

Uncertainty still clouds
timber review projections

’ MUCH OF the new timber supply

review is taken up with what are
called ‘timber supply sensitivity
analyses’’.

They look at the various factors

‘used in determining the base case
' and ask what if it’s all wrong?

In many cases these analyses
have a negligible effect on the long
term projection, but change the pic-
ture dramatically in the short and
medium tenn.

For example, if the amount of
standing timber is over-estimated

‘by 10 per cent, the AAC would

have to be reduced io 371,000
cum. within 20 years and stay
there fora century.

The long term projection remains
unchanged because by then most of
the wood being cut will come from
second growth stands.

But that means if the growth
potential of these stands is over-
estimated by 10 per cent, the long
term sustainable cut has to be
reduced to 379,000 cu.m. per year.

The long term projection {s alsa
vulnerable to reductions in the tim-
ber harvesting land base - for ex-
ample, the creation of new parks or

land claim scttlements. A 10 per
cent reduction here has much the
same result as above.

On the other hand, Kalum forest
district staff point out the iand base
could actually be increased through
the use of more helicopter logging.

That’s because about 4,500 hec-
tares currently classified as
‘noperable’’ by conventional log-
ging methods conld be added to the
working forest,

If that were to happen, the current
cut could be sustained for 30 years
and would then only have to be
reduced to 447,500 cum, annually
- which would also be the revised
long term sustainable harvest.

However, the review notes that
would depend on the economic,
physical and = environmental
feasibillty of helicopter logging in
these areas.

One things is clear from all these
analyses: there are still a lot of un-
certainties involved in forecasting
future harvest levels and that it will
be many years yet before enough is
known to put some of them to bed.

While what changes in the land
base may result from future treaties

concluded with the Haisla, Tsim-
shian, Carricr-Sckani and Gitxsan,
the impact of the Nisga’a Treaty is
known.

That treaty would remove 32,286
hectares from the Kalum TSA,
about 4,700 ha. of which are within
the current limber harvesting land
base.

The review puts the current AAC
of that area at just under 36,000
cum. with a long-term projection
of 21,550 cu.m. a

It also locks at two alternatives
should that area be removed from
the TSA immediately.

The first follows the base case by
malntaning the current cut for 30
years. It then declines at the rate of
about cight per cent per decade to
366,000 cum, before rising in
decade 12 to a long term figure of
411,000 cu.m.

The second calls for maintaining
the current cut for only 10 years
then stepping down eight per cent
reductions in each of the next two
decades to 387,000 cu.m, The long
term projection is the same as
above, nearly five per cent below
the base case forecast.

Review gets little public reaction

THE TIMBER Supply Review put
out by the Ministry of Forests
generated the public
response it was intended to get.

. Rod Meredith, Kalum Forest Dis-
trict Official, said all of the public
response to the report has been

. fom government officials,

No individual or advocacy group

’ ministy despite advertising done to

promote the report.

**We’ve been contacted by Ter-
race and Kitimat Councils as well
a3 the Regional District,’’ he said.

The report issued by the ministry
is atly open for public response un-
tii May 31, and Meredith doubts
there will be much of one,

“We have advertised about ihe
report, but if we haven't heard any-
thing yet it probably won’t hap-

pen.”’

The responses that Meredith has
gotten are concerning econotnics.

“The councils have been asking
questions about the inactivity of the
past,” Meredith said,

Meredith said there Is a more
stable supply of timber in the
region and the economic concerns
of the councils have been ad-
dressed,

The Terrace Standard, Wednesday, May 26, 1999 - AS

CORRESPONDENCE FOR THE TERRACE STANDARD

The Mail Bag

He isn’t an anti-Nisga’a
treaty organizer

Dear Sir:

I am writing to you regarding the May 5 article in
The Terrace Standard, ‘‘Opponents fade as treaty
marches on’’.

Whoever wrote said article has not got their facts
Straight, ;

I'm speaking of the 13th paragraph which states
“Aaron GreyClovd, an Ojibway native who helped
organize Kincolith opposition Jast year.’’ As well that I
was organizing opposition this year.

This is absolutely false and a distortion of what I had
said. What I had said was that I am related to the
people who organized last year’s opposilion and that
they should be here to organize this year if they are
scrious about opposing the deal.

Furthennore | am not even Ojibway, I am a Cree na-
tive adopted into the Nisga’a nation. James Robinson is
my brother and Frank Barton our cousin.

Aaron J. GreyCloud, New Aiyansh, B.C.

Accountability a must
in native government

Dear Sir:

I am not surprised that Skeena Reform MP Mike
Scott was the only one in attendance at the First Na-
tions Accountability Coalition (QNAC) meeting in Tex-
race May 8,

The article about the meeting is empty and only
points out that no one showed except the MP for
Skeena and those from Masset who are organizing a
B.C. branch of the accountability coalition. Whoever
was responsible in Terrace to advertise this meeting did
a poor job. 1am sure it was not the fault of the FNAC.

Leona Freed of the FNAC deserved better, I am sure
the native people who showed treated her with honour
and respect,

If the MP for Skeena and the FNAC have been shar-
ing information and holding joint press conferences
over the past two years, why are the people in his
Skeena riding so i] informed about the FNAC?

Mr. Scott has stated that the Reform did not back this
conference, but Reform is definitely supporting the
idea that the coalition is putting forth and the Reform
being the Opposition will be the first io get the coali-
tion’s findings.

Of course, the politicians provinciaily in this area
wou't show at mectings of this nature and cast it off as
a federal matter even though the province has a huge
Aboriginal Affairs office in Victoria.

Most people in governments and the non-native
populous won't touch native issues, Yet we are forever
hearing about the people’s tax dollars and your tax dol-
lars being misspent,

When someone comes and tries to find solutions to
getting financial accountability and to put an end to
mismanagement of band and program funding and na
longer tolerate corruption, nepotism, cover-ups,
‘poverty’and abuse of our people at band’ level, there is
no one around, Tome EE ge ate

This was a first attempt by the FNAC and’ they
should be commended. It is not easy to get people io
come to these sorts of things in this area,

When the Indian people go for something like this
they mean business and no one is trying to be a hero.
The future of the people is at stake and no aboriginal
group is ready for self-government unless there is
financial accountability first. ;

Mary Dalen, Cedarvale, B.C.

Feel better now
after throwing rocks?

Dear Sir:
I wonder what goes through some people’s minds.
On May 6 how proud some teens must have been of
themselves. They were probably bragging about what
. they did,

That day my son, only 11 years old, was on his way
to school. Some kids hid behind some bushes and
Started throwing rocks at him, yelling, ‘“Go back to
your own land.”

They must have been so proud to pick on an innocent
child. Because of things like this, sometimes it makes
us afraid of who we are instead of being proud.

I wonder if people like this try for one day to be in
another race’s shoes.

~

V. Robinson, Terrace, B.C.

MSG warnings needed
on restaurant menus

An open letter to:
Northwestern Restaurants

Dear Sir:

Would you Knowingly put arsenic or peanut oil in
food? No? Well, why do you put in MSG?

Thad a friend go out to eat breakfast on Mother’s Day
and ended up in the hospital from MSG.

Tam allergic to MSG also, Why do you use it?

Will restaurants continue to use it until it kills some-
body? Food suppliers are now marking foods contain-
ing no MSG, Why can’t you mark your menus as
saying, ““we do use MSG”,

That would put the onus on us. .

Today is Wednesday and my friend is still recouping
from Mothers’ Day. She ate at a new place for her,
They haven’t been in town for long, Do you think
she’ll ever eat there again? Do you think J will?

Let’s hope that these people that are taking these food
courses on safe preparation will also learn that there are
some foods that people are very allergic too that should
not be put into foods without telling people.

Anne Payne, Terrace B.C.

About letters

THE TERRACE Standard welcomes letters ta the
editor, Our deadline is noon Fridays; noon Thursdays
on a long weekend. You can wrife us at 3210 Clinton
St, Terrace, B.C. V8G SR2. Our fax number ts 250-
638-8432 or you can email us at
standard@kermode.net

Letters must be signed and must have a phone num-
ber, .