The Terrace Standard, Wednesday, September 15, 1993 - Page AS

LETTERS

Forests figures are a maze —

TERRACE — How much wood
is there out in the Kalum North?
How much wood will there be
in 50, 100, 200 years?
_.. Those are the questions the
Forest: Service are wrestling with
these days.
“Depending on what answers he
comes:.up:-with. fo those same
questions, John Cuthbert, the pro-
: yince’s chief forester, will be

--.. making‘a decision next spring on

. what ‘changés, if any, have to be

: ~~ made to the annual allowable cut
; in that area, .

“Before he does that, though,
members of the public will have a
chance to have their say.

“But, given the Forest Service it-
self seems to be having a hard
time: with the questions, the pub-
lic ‘will ‘face ‘a daunting task in

; : trying to Come up with an in-_

formed opinion on the issue.
80 far the ministry and its con-

~ sullanis have come up with the’
oo following reports:

ih) alum North Timber Supp-
ly. Analysis - a 61 page document
teleased in February and contain-
ing 25.tables,.20 graphs and two
appendices of technical informa-
Hon;

2. - Socio-Economle Assess-
ment of Timber Supply Options
:.~, for-the Northern Portion of the

~ "Kalum TSA - 55 pages and four
appendices with more tables and
Bets released in July;

“ft is possible that
small inaccuracies
in some_ variables
could have large ef-
fects on results.

“On the — other
hand, fairly large in-
accuracies for other
variables may have
negligible effects.”

3) The Northwest Forest In-

dustry: An Overview of Cur-

rent Wood Fibre Supply, Con-
sumption and Processing Ca-
pacity - alias the Stanyer report,
this comparatively short 20-plus
page document only has 10 tables
and graphs and just two appen-
dices; and, finally, .

4) Kalum North Timber Supp-
ly Analysis Addendum = -
released last week, its 19 pages
throw up a new set of figures for

.wood supply in the area,

Although the Forest Service in-
tends to release a simplified ver-
sion of the timber supply analy-
sis, there are some things that
simply cannot be simplified.

They are called variables, and
they are everywhere.

And before the reader even be-
gins to try calculating their affect,

Annual timber harvest C0005: eu. mm).
1405

400
20 _ Hive beghs ane 25 en ce cane
sed ern a 08% ps cee ts ;
Q + " ft 1
re We Be 2

* Decades from present

TELLING THE STORY, this graph from the original analysis
shows the steady decline In lagging it projects will have to con-
tinue right into the 22nd century...based on current assumptions.

the original analysis offers the
following cautionary note:

“Tt is possible that small in-
accuracies in some variables:
could have large effects on
Tesults. ;

‘On the, other hand, fairly large
inaccuracies for other variables
may have negligible effects.’

Ail efforis to calculate the
volume of wood out there begin.
with the long term harvesting
hase.

That’s an arca-based calculation
and more than.a dozen different
factors have to be taken into ac-
count in arriving at this figure,

They run from potentially pro-
ductive land lost to existing roads

TERRACE -- = Important
North Kalum annual allowable
cut (AAC) will be, it’s only a
piece of a much larger jigsaw.
““"""Thal’s because there are no
= saw or: pulp mills within the
© Kalum North area.
Therefore, all timber cut
there is processed elsewhere.
Between 15 and 20 per cent
_-Of that wood is exported to
~ Japan, the United States and
‘Korea,
: But the bulk of the remainder
feeds mills in Terrace, Kitimat
aid Prince Rupert. Some wood
“also finds its way to sawmills
‘in the ‘Hazelton/Kitwanga area.
‘ajAndithose! mills” rely: “Otithe

OF, ‘lesser extent.
* The: ‘Stanyer report, released
“last month, looked at that kind

a é ‘of interdependence.

‘It: compared the available

|) annual: ‘allowable cuts) to the
| amount ‘saw and pulp mills
“could consume if running at
-. full capacity,

: The wood supply ‘total took
~ into account AACs in’ seven

~_ and part of an eighth, two Tree
Farm. Licences and the Small
“Business . Forest’ Enterprise
_ Program tenures.

It did not include any timber

" but..the “report suggested this
“amounted to.‘‘not Jess than’’
“600,000 cu.m. annually.
~~ On the other side of the cal-
culation were the Skeena Cel-
lulose ‘(Prince Rupert) and
Burocan (Kitimat) pulp mills,
plus 13 sawmills including
Terrace’s Skeena Sawmills and
Skeena Cellulose operations.
' To -no-one’s surprise, the
-report found potential capacity
“exceeded supply in both sec-
“tors. ‘
At right, a summary of the
‘ figures, :
- Tt’should be noted the pulp
mill capacity figure does not
“Anclude:the proposed Orenda
“project. =
Nor. does. the AAC total at-
a ‘tempi to predict how much the
AAC may be reduced in the
- future -by- decisions made by
“the: Chief Forester or other fac-

“new Ww parks,

_ though any decision on the -

North Kalam wooil' to'z greater §
sa TSAs and. TFLs. sosesunnie

» wood supply across the entire - .
“northwest ‘(based on current

“Timber Supply Areas (TSA)

” originating from private lands,

ce tore’ such’ a3 the creation of

‘North Kalum just part of puzzle

Current Annual Allowable Cut

Timber Supply Areas
Morice aan osseeue 2 million cu.mL
North and South Kalum setsteans 1.7 million cum,
LakeS ess 1,5 million cu.m.
KUiSPi0X..ssseuseseeensegrssseeseenseeees 1.1 million cu.m.
North Coast esteats 650,000 cu.m.
Bulkley even wun 461,000 cu.m.
Cassiar - 140,000 cu.m.
Cranberry oss. mi sateeeut .110,000 cu.m.
6.33 million cu.im.
Tree Farm Licences
TFL #1 (Repap)... seesesneet 690,000 cu.m.
TFL #41 (West Fraser)... .408,000 cu.m.
. 1.09 million cu.m.

‘ i ma “4
en ae ce were

stan Hiisiitess FOr terme tenures -
sesissoess be million cum,

Total AAC. 8.84 million cu.m.

- Sawmills profile

Logp processing capacity: ..
(Includes North Coast Timber mill i in Prince Rupert and Ki itwanga
sawmill even though they did not operate in 1992.) ~

Net sawlog supply... evens seecmrerreevensee 63 Million Cum

(This figure is estimated AAC sawlog availability plus estimated .

private wood minus log exports and lags transfervedisotd to other
areas of province)

Total sawlog consumption in 1992: .. 6.2 million cu.m.
(North Coast Timber and Kitwanga mills, both closed last year,
have a capacity of 450,000 curt.)

Total overcapacity..........ssoeuecneves 1 lion Cu.m.

Capacity unused in L99Z verssrieveninn 1. 1 million Cu.M,

Pulp mills profile
Maximum capacity...
Net fibre Supply......eseesseseseseeeeeenes 4e1 million cum.
(This figure is estimated AAC pulp log availability plus chips pro-
duced by sawmills minus pulp log exports) ,

Total pulp consumption.................... 3.4 million cu.m.

(Eurocan says its chip usage last year was ‘‘significantly below —

designed capacity” beéause of labour disruptions and problems
with a new production line. The soft pulp market of 1992 was an-
other factor in creating a fibre surplus)

Total OVELCAPACIY....cccssssessesssserss

Capacity unused itt 1992, ..rsscrsseoree 1:2 Million cu.m.

“elisdin i

sesttiismeue 73 tnillion cuzm’

sseteenene 4.6 miltion cu.m. :

jesiraeeeeee 700,000 cust.

to sites which cannot be logged
because they are classified as en-
vironmentally sensitive.

But that final figure, like so
many in the reports, has to be
based on current assumptions.

Bxample: if at some point in the
future it is decided streamside
buffers have io be wider than
present or government decides to
establish more- parks in the area,
the figure has to be changed.

Reduce the land base figure and
the number of trees available for
cutting obviously drops.

That in turn reduces the avail-
able volume of timber, the basis
for setting the annual allowable
cut.

Volume; the real wild card in
the deck,

The Forest Service uses what is
known as the Variable Density
Yield Projection (VD YF) system.

The VDYP uses tree specie, age
and growth. potential of the site
among other things in artiving at
8 Forecast,

On that basis, the original anal-
ysis suggested 385, 000 cu.m. was
the long. range . annual harvest
level to be aimed for.

- Since then, the inventory
branch has come up with new

criteria which have changed that ©

original projection.

And even that’s not: necessarily
the last word.

As- more information comes
available, the VD¥P. could easily
have to be changed again,

In the meantime, local Forest
district staff are insistent the
VDYP forecasts for the Kalum

_ North, .;. both original ; and
* amended, are too high. oe
So who! *s right?
Unfortunately, ithe definitive

answer to that question won’t be-
come clear for many years yet.
It's much the same problem
when it comes to second growth.
Any calculation of long range
volumes has to take that into ac-

count. .

‘How fast replacement trees
grow is important for two rea-
sons,

The first, of course, is trying to
determine when they would reach
a harvestable size.

The second involves ‘‘eutbiock
adjacency’’ and ‘‘green-up’’ re-
quirements.

Put, simply, thesé regulations
specify how developed second
growth. must be before adjacent
cutblocks can be logged..

It therefore affects not only
long term, but also relatively
short term harvests.

This.is a real guessing game be-
cause large scale logging is a
comparatively - Tecent arrival on
the scene,

' AS the original analysis: ex-

plained, ‘‘There are very few sec-

ond growth stands close to mer-
chantable size from which to
estimate minimum harvest ages.’’

Agnin, the local staff disagree
with the estimates used, but this

time they think they might be on -
_the low side, -

: The addendum sums it up thus:
“Discussions about harvest level
alternatives must proceed in. the
face of this uncertainty.”’

_ About the only thing that ap-
pears certain i is the AAC must be
Teduced, —

Cuthbert has an unenviable task
trying to decide by how much and
when.

TO THE TERRACE STANDARD

has its

Dear Sir:

My husband and [ have lived
‘on Agar Avenue, tess than one
block away from Discovery

years, We have never had any
complaints nor have we heard
any noise,

Our daughter has attended
this daycare and we were very
pleased with the excellent care

she received,

We feel that the Bromley’s
choice for a new centre on
Hamer Street is perfect.. Chil-
dren should, as much as pos-
sible, be in their own neigh-

they can provide care. for
families from the E.T. Kenney,
Parkside and Christian Centen-
nial School population.

We need more, -not. less,
well-run, caring, responsible
daycare centres and spaces for
our children.

dren are our: future. Perhaps
those who oppese the change
of zoning by-laws to accom-
modate 16 children should te-
examine their values.

record

Dear Sir:
In response to your Sept. &
1993 article headlined

Trophy Hunting Deal Takes
Flak”, I would just like to
make you aware of the facts
which were omitted from the
fiction story that was written.

Firstly, ever since I came to
Terrace in.1978, I have been
know as Harry McCowan (not
McGowan).

Secondly, .as far as Robert
Robinson’s statement in your
article that the Haisla were
never given a chance to pur-
chase this guide area. Appar-
ently Mr, Rebinson is unaware

‘| of negotiations: Which” took +

‘place between myself and

Gerald. Amos, who from the
spring 1991 to approximately
December of 1991 was In con-
tact with me on several occa-
sions as to the purchase price,
equipment involved, and the
size of the area for sale.

_ These . negotiations _ broke
down shortly thereafter, with
the understanding that
funding would not be available
to the Haisla for such a pur-
chase. ;

Gerald Amos, at that time,
was the chief councillor of the
Haisla. Shortly after these ne-

_gotiations broke down, the
guide area was. put on the
market and a “subsequent put-
chaser was found.

Environment . apologizing to
the Haisla for fallure to notify ©
them of the proposed sale, so

icate, and I had the right to sell
it to any qualified person
without interference ‘from the
Ministry of Environment.

In regards to Bob Stafford
saying that I ‘‘...failed to men-
tion critical factors relating to

_ the viability of the guide terri-
tory.’’ I did not sell this guide
area to Bob Stafford. In faci [

The Terrace Standard wel-
comes letters to the editor. We
ask that they be signed and @

‘phone number be included.

Letters are subject to editing
for reasons of length and for
good taste. Unsigned letters
are thrown away,

You can fax your letters in

Daycare, for more than two-

bourhood, From this jocation.

We all know that our chil-

the.

In regards to the Ministry of -

_ what? I owned the guide certif- .

Daycare cenire

backers

Shouldn’t we all be more con-
cerned wilh people than prop-
erty values?
We really support council’s
decision for rezoning to enable
ihe Bromley’s to continue to
provide their excellent daycare
service,
In conclusion we would like
to say kecp up the fight guys
and keep up the great work!
Bonnie Daniels,
Terrace, B.C.

kkk kk

Dear Sirs

‘An opponent of Mr. Brom-
ley’s application for a 16-child
daycare wrote: ‘*Business,
where customers come to your
home (ihe street becomes
noisy and congested) should
not be in a residential area.””

Let me tell you, it’s possible
to have residential neighbours
who create more. around the’
‘clock noise and traffic conges-
tion with their family comings
and goings than any daycare
clientele dropping off or pick-
ing up 16 toddlers. -

Claudette Sandecki,
Terrace, B.C,

Ex-guide sets

straight

did not sell the guide area to
four new owners. I did how-
ever, sell this guide area to an
individual.

With negotiations taking 14
Months to complete, this pur-
chaser was of course informed
of the chances of the Kitlope
Valley being logged,: and of
the chances of the Kitlope Val-
ley being made into a provin-

_ cial park.

I had the right to sell

the guide certificate to

any qualifie ied. . person
withoitt _ interference
from the Ministry of En-
vironment.

I have never been contacted

by the Haisla, I have never
been contacted by the Ministry
of Environment, I have never
been contacted by the Ministry
of Aboriginnl Affairs, 1 have
never been contacted by the
provincial government, nor
have I ever been contacted by
the federal government in
regards to any land claims tak-
ing place within my guide
ara,
T would suggest that if Bob
Stafford is the new owner, then
perhaps he should be raising
the questions with the individ-
ual he purchased the guide area
from, which under no condi-
tion, is myself.

The area that I sold i is a -very
viable and game rich arca of
British Columbia. Jf the na-
tives wish to purchase the area,
they certainly had the op-
portunity, and perhaps in the
‘future. the opportunity will
arise again.

Sincerely,
Harry McCowan, ©
Kelowna, B.C..

About letters

to 638-8432. The deadline is
noon Friday. -

We're looking forward to
receiving letters about the fed-
eral election.

But we remind writers that
the shorter the letter is, the
better the chance it has of
being printed right away.

“learning how to read,

The Start.ws for people

Get ready for the federal teacher and lives
election Oct. 25. Prince Rupett.
Here are the people run- = Danny Sheridan is run-

Housing Society in Ter-
race, -
The Liberal person. is

Fulton. He has retired,
The new person running

-| for the New Democrats is

| Joe Barrett. He is a

ning in Skeena, ning for the Progressive
They want to replace Conservatives. He works
New Democrat Jim for the Muks Kum Ol

Rhoda Witherly. She

Federal election Oct. 25

owns a business and lives
in Prince Rupert.

Mike Scott is running
for ihe Reform party. He
works for a paving com-
pany in Kitimat.

Smithers. is the home
town for Luke Kwantes.
He is running for the
Christian Heritage Party,

There will also be a Na-
tional Party candidate.
His name is Isaac Sobol
and he is a doctor in the
Nass Valley.

Take a look at the ‘X’
and the maple leaf on the

tight.
~ That is the symbol. used.
_ by Blections Canada. a

ELECTIONS
CANADA

on the election.

bol, look. for. details on
Be how to vote. - :

It is the group that puts

When you see the sym-