IWA By WALTER SIMCICH IWA International Research Director Year-end reviews and fore- easts of the future by in- dustry spokesmen and jour- nals are painting one of the brightest outlooks for the forest products industry ever recorded. With major nego- _tiations just around the corn- er in the United States and Canada, a random sampling of the industry’s own ap- praisals of the situation are of interest to all workers in the industry. PICTURE The basic picture regarding the lumber industry’s current condition was set forth briefly late in December by Crow’s Weekly Letter: “The year just completed was, for most lumbermen, as good or better than anything so far in the ’60s, and certain- ly a big improvement over the 1960-1963 years.” Two of the principal rea- sons given by this source are the upswing in government buying and the expansion of remodeling as well as heavy construction work. TALKS Crepe-hanging by the in- dustry regarding the future is surprisingly hard to come by despite the imminence of con- tract talks. The Western Wood Products Association’s prediction of a 5 per cent in- crease in the use of softwood lumber in 1966 is typical. Cit- ing the general anticipation of booming economic conditions and consumers’ rising pur- chasing power, a recent study by this group states: . add to this the lowest level of unsold homes in sev- eral years, the Housing Act of 1985 which brought home purchase within reach of mil- fe of veterans, the increas- ing marriage rate, and our op- timism for more consumption of western softwood is evi- dent.” Although written just be- fore war pressures on the U.S. economy forced the recent in- S terest rate hikes, similar op- « timism was expressed by . THE WESTERN CANADIAN LUMBER WORKER George A. Christie of the F. W. Dodge Company. This eminent economist pin-point- ed the main reason underly- ing this hopeful view of the years ahead when he noted that “the industry is on the verge of long-term growth.” Christie recalled that in the 1960-1963 period, U.S. hous- ing starts far exceeded the number of new families be- ing formed. In 1963, for ex- ample, housing starts out- numbered new families by almost 800,000, It took all of 1964-65 to bring the housing market back into balance by cutbacks in activity, primarily in the apartment construction field. A major upsurge will start in late 1966, in Christie’s view, when rent supplements under the 1865 Housing Act are scheduled to get under way. But he predicts that the real head of steam in this long term expansion wiil develop in 1967 when the marriage rate will rise sharply. New household formations, now averaging 800,U00 a year in the U.S., are then expected to soar to the record level of over 1,000,000 annually. In other words, this major generator of housing activity should be well under way be- fore IWA’s next contracts with the industry in Western Canada and the Pacific North- west are six months old. If anything, the present and future outlook for pulp and paper firms is even better. A late December editorial by the industry publication Pulp and Paper gives us a quick run down on matters from its vantage point. it reports that the industry “goes right on setting production records— it will be near 44 million tons this year. Industry earnings are the best since 1956.” CRYSTAL BALL No glum notes are to be found in this editorial as to what tomorrow will bring. On the contrary, its crystal ball gazing brought nothing but cheer to the hearts of pulp and paper mill owners and managers: “In 10 years, the world added 600 million people and future increases will greatly accelerate. In 20 years the world will require 2U0 million tons of paper, twice what it has made this year. There THE WESTERN CANADIAN LUMBER Published twice monthly Advertising Representative arded to ever with con | per year. ® WORKER as the official ’ INTERNATIONAL WOODWORKERS OF AMERICA, Western Canadian Regional Council No. 2859 Commercial Drive, Vancouver, B. ~ i as ELE Sea ae publication of the