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hC. LUMBER INDUSTRY NEEDS IT BUT —

Canada ignores Chinese market

. As lumber markets shrink, eyes in this province turn to China, the natural
Mrket across the Pacific. Historically China has been a substantial market, not only
our lumber, but for fish and many other products besides.

. In the twenties, Canada’s exports to China averaged nearly $17 million a
Rar. In the late forties, they rose to an average of $24 million a year. In the 25

ts from 1926 to 1950, there
Mte only four years in which
"did not have a favorable
lance of trade with China,

jpulance which rose to over
) million in 1946.

but Since the People’s Gov-
nt came to power in

»€@ unilateral embargo by
8 has reduced this valu-
liye trade practically to noth-

manada is almost unique
lp ne the capitalist powers
I, Observing the U.S.-dictated
ect. Whatever superficial
Meer of logic this policy may
vnc had during the years
|“2 the Canadian and Chin-

€0vernments were taking
MPosite sides in the Korean
has long since vanished.

deed, the recent journey
hit liberal MP Elmore. Phil-
Date and the tone of his dis-
plies from China would
‘ea to indicate that govern-
a Circles would not be ad-
. to finding a way of
bly abandoning its pre-
4 Policy — if only the U.S.
bis Department will agree
j,0ck the other way while

'S happepning.
gether NATO powers have

wie Since dropped the boy-

hith and entered into trade

Nene China on a wide scale.

ie? for example, are West

‘op and exports to China
€ past four years:

a $ 2,540,000
22,800,000
19,600,000
26,210,000

orth n exported $22 million
js, 0f goods to China in
Hing 28Pan. $28 million, Fin-
i; $12 million, France $7
lion °n and Belgium $7 mil-
ittigg “OF each of these coun-
‘tom except Finland, imports

hina were still higher.

Brita

{by is Canadian business
|e Marticipating in the Chin-
|», Tade? Repeated offers
iIivyarectiate deals have been
tm ted by refusal of the gov-

hits nt to issue export per-

Ltagttoretically, permits are
fog °c. only for strategic
IMhate,; 22 Practice the word
thin lc is very elastic. Any-
ajig, that contributes to a
ontrine Capacity to survive
Mage utes to its capacity to
tha, Var. At one period, even

ar 3
Panes eutical supplies were

T

ig absurdity of the situa-
Iiticg yUSible in the trade sta-
wy a the first six months
Canada” During that period,
“Oman imported 56 classes of
by Gauties worth $4,316,787
Ne hina. But during the
Period our exports to

China included only two
commodities, .worth almost
precisely one-tenth of that
amount. This notwithstanding
China’s offers to buy a wide
range of commodities in large
quantity.

Earlier this year, efforts
were made, on the initiative
of East-West Export Import
Company, to organize a dele-
gation of Canadian business
men to China for the purpose
of opening up trade contacts.
Although considerable inter-
est was displayed by import-
ant business concerns, and
preliminary steps were taken,
when the chips were down the
business leaders backed out.
Pressure had been exerted
from somewhere.

In viewing the future, Brit-
ish Columbia is faced with
two alternative markets, the
United States and China.

In the case of lumber, for
example, the U.S. is now tak-
ing about 80 percent of our
exports. But this represents
only about ten percent of Am-
erican consumption, and would
rapidly dwindle if faced with
any substantial cutback in
home building in the US.
American marginal require-
ments, in other words, repre-
sent the basic demand on
which our lumber industry
depends. :

China, on the other hand, is
potentially an almost bottom-
less market for lumber. It has
600,000,000 poorly housed peo-
ple. It is embarking on an
industrialization program
which will inevitably result
in tens of millions of people
being transferred from agri-
culture to industry and there-
by giving rise to new housing
needs. And China’s lumber
industry, even potentially,
cannot begin to satisfy its own
needs.

The American lumber mar-
ket is unstable, the Chinese
stable and growing, But at
this moment, we are selling
no lumber to China.

The St. Laurent government
is blind to the possibilities of
China as a market for food
products. It can be argued
that China is producing all of
its own food requirements. And
there is no doubt that mechan-
ization and improved methods
will increase food production,

But it is historically true,
and undoubtedly still valid,
that when a nation industrial-
izes rapidly, its food require-
ments grow more rapidly
than its food production.

China was for many years
the principal market for Brit-
ish Columbia herring, and
there have been indications
that the Chinese government
would be interested in re-
establishing this trade.

The potentialities of Cana-

dian-Chinese trade are not to
be described in terms of indi-
vidual products.

The needs that are created
when a nation of 600,000,000
people begins to industrialize
are virtually infinite. Given
world peace, this process is
likely to go on at a rapid pace
for at least two generations.

During that period, each
new mill or dam or factory or
mine or railway will give rise
to the demand for thousands
of products, some of which can
be produced locally, but many
of which will be obtained more
cheaply by buying them from
those who have them avail-
able. Therefrom arises an in-
ternational division of labor
which constitutes the material
basis for stable trade relations.

But can China pay for the
goods it needs to import?
Won’t industrialization make
her self-sufficient and inde-
pendent of our exports?

Here again, history gives the
answer. As nations have in-
dustrialized, their internation-
al trade has increased not di-
minished. However wide the
range of commodities a nation
produces, it always been found
advantageous to trade those
which it can produce most ef-
ficiently for others in which

China is a natural market for Canada, but trade has shrunken
to a trickle.

its neighbors have the advan-
tage.

Moreover, out of 21 capital-
ist states with whom China
traded last year, the balance
of trade was in China’s favor
with 17 of them. That is to
say that China has sold to the
capitalist world a great deal

more than it has bought from

it, and thereby it has acquir-

ed the means of payment for

further imports.

This trade is there for the
asking. Why should British
Columbia sit on the doorstep
of the largest potential mar-
ket in the world?

Ottawa's refusal to recognize
China scored as narrow policy’

TORONTO

Within the next 20 years China, which Canada still refuses to recognize, will become
one of the most powerful nations in the world. This is the opinion of James S. Duncan,
prominent eastern industrialist and chairman of the Ontario Hydro-Electric Power

Commission.

Speaking recently to a joint meeting of the Toronto Canadian Club and the Empire

Club of Canada, he was sharp-
ly critical of the U.S. policy
of refusing to recognize Chi-
na.
“The United States policy of
non-recognition of a rapidly
developing China, with its
600,000,000 to 650,000,000 peo-
ple, was truly a real gift to
the USSR! We Canadians
probably would not have in-
itiated such a narrow policy,
but we did go along with it,
which to my mind is just about
as bad.”

Dunean claimed that this
policy of non-recognition not
only made it necessary for
China to turn to the Soviet
Union for  industrialization
and education, but also locked
the door “so that no one else
could get in on the process.”

China, he pointed out, is
presently engaged in complet-
ing her first five-year plan,
based upon more than 150
major projects. In all of these
projects, China is receiving
the advantage of Soviet tech-

nique, experience and indus-
trial output.

According. to Duncan, all
engineering studies in China
are carried out with text books
translated from the Russian,
and because this process is too
slow, Russian is being taught
in Chinese: universities.

Pointing to the tremendous
effort being made to wipe out
illiteracy, Duncan told his au-
dience that 51,000,000 children
are now enrolled in primary
schools. 10,000 students, of
who 30 percent will be wom-
en are expected to enroll in
the science courses of the
Ching Hua University in Pe-
king in 1957.

Referring to the phenom-
enal growth in population,
he predicted a population of
one billion in 35 years. He
attributed this to the decline
in the infant mortality rate,
notable advances in hygiene
and living conditions and a
high birth rate,

When the population hits the
one billion mark, China will
have more people than the
Soviet Union, Europe and
North, Central and South Am-
erica, including the West In-
dies, combined.

Referring to his recent visit
to the Soviet Union, Duncan
said, “In every Russian factory
where I visited last year, I
found important groups of
Chinese engineers and techni-
cians in training.”

Further on education he
said:

“All classes of Chinese so-
ciety have embarked upon this
program with a vigor and a
determination to learn equall-
ed only by what is taking place
in Russia itself.”

Commenting wryly on Can-

ada’s refusal to recognize

China, he stated: “At least,

history will not say of us that

when we refused to recog-

nize a nation we chose a

small one.”

DECEMBER 14, 1956 — PACIFIC TRIBUNE — PAGE 3