PAGE 8, THE HERALD, Friday. September 30, 1977

Keep away, economists
warn U.S. businessmen

QUEBEC (CP) — An in-
fluential American research
institute has advised its
clients that “‘it is now
unrealistic to conduct
business as usual wherever
a Quebec connection is in-
volved."

SRI International, for-
merly The Stanford
Research Institute, says in a
recent copyright report on
Quebec Separatism, that
business circumstances are
being affected by the un-
certainty in the province
and its effects on the rest of
Canada. '

e 15-page report was
distributed | to members of
the Quebec national
assembly press gallery by
the office of Premier Rene
Levesque Thursday at the
request of journalists.

e document by ex-
patriate Canadian William
Waters, a senior marketing
consultant with a division of
SRI, says that ‘‘at this time,
separation of Quebec from
the rest of Canada is still ‘a
long shot’”

but he adds: ‘'Fren
Canada is headed towards
some form of greater self-
determination.’

Levesque mentioned the
report last weekend when
talking to reporters about
foreign attitudes to his
governinent and especially
oreign press reports, He
it as

described ‘‘com-

prehensive.”

TORONTO TO GROW .
Among the economic
effects of continued political
uncertainty cited by the
report is a slowdown of
economic growth across
Canada, particularly in
Quebec, and continued
growth of Toronto as the.
most important business
centre in Canada.

“The economy of Quebec
will experience difficulties,
due to the migration of
businesses and people not
tied to Quebec,” the report
sayg. The brunt will be
taken by Montreal, it says,
whete a general economic
decline can be expected.

On the positive side, the
report concludes that in-
vestment capital for the
James Bay hydroelectric
project will be ‘ obtainable”
and there may be labor
stability in Quebec because
of union support for sepa-
ratism.

Officials of the institute in
Menlo Park, Cal., said there
has been extraordinary
interest in the report among
the 400 clients of the
Business Intelligence

- Program, and especially
Canadian corporate clients.

- More

MONTREAL (CP) — A
survey by Southam Press
Ltd., in which The Toronto
Star participated, says
more than one million
peaple would leave Quebec
if the province separated
from the rest of Canada.

The survey, conducted by
Goldfarb Consultants Ltd. of
Toronto, also says up to
750,000 people in other
provinces would leave the
country.

Results of the survey,
based on interviews with

‘Black book’ to make case

QUEBEC (CP) — All
Quebec municipalities will
soon be getting a copy of a
“black book" listing federal
intrusion in the provincially-
controlled field of municipal
affairs, Premier Rene
Levesque said Thursday.

It wili be the second major
exhibit in the Parti
Quebecois government's
trial of federalism. A
publication last spring at-
tempted to show that the
province gives more
revenues to than it receives
from the federal govern-
ment.

Levesque announced the
imminent publication of the
“black book” at his weekly
news conference as he ex-

lained why the government

yeotted the annual con-
vention of the Quebec Union
of Municipalities.

He said the executive of

the union committed the
"diplomatic error’? of in-

The report says ‘‘outright
civil war over Quebec
separatiam seems very
unlikely, but federal] action
to ensure Ottawa’s control
over Quebec is conceivable

Although armed conflict
would be tragic, the
decument says, violence
could occur because so
much is believed to be at
Stake.

SEES LONG DISPUTE

- Waters, who has been in
the United States since the
1950s, says that in the long
run a negotiated settlement
is almost certain but it will
probably not be permanent.

Such a settlement with
Quebec could involve dis-
memberment of the CBC to
proyide Quebec with a
goveramentowned

oadcasting system, ac:
ceptance of French as the
only official language in
Quebec and more transfer of

financial resources to the
province.

The document says that
despite their desire for their
own country, most French-
Canadians are cautious
about expecting too much
from anybody, including
their own leaders.

“Skepticism abou
possible success places the

urden for the outcome of
Quebec’s future on the
quality of leadership pro-
vided and the actual
economic feasibility of a
separated Quebec.”

n this context, the
document says Montreal is
the key to success in the
referendum on separation.
If the economy remains
prosperous in Quebec's
metropolis, voters may opt
for independence.

Waters says the effect of
PQ government policies on
Montreal will not become
apparent until 1979 or 1980.

The Quebec debate

s

tage Oct. 16.

told a news conference:

\._ reaction to his little joke.

{ Feathers ruffled
at Queen’s visit

QUEBEC (CP) — Ottawa is not amused by the
political course charted by Quebec, and next month it
may be the Queen’s turn not to be amused.

However, Premier Rene Levesque appears to have
retained a sense- of humor about the aifair.

Prime Minister Trudeau has invited the 10
provincial premiers to dinner with Queen Elizabeth at
the prime minister's Harrington Lake summer cot-

Pressed by a British journalist Thursday to say
whether he plans a trip to Great Britain or whether he
is interested in presenting his case for Quebec in-
dependence to the British people, Levesque lightly

“If I get a chance, Tl present it during a dinner
we're going to have—supposing anyone is interested—
pretty soon at Mr. Trudeau’s summer cottage.”

The comment prompted a glaring front-page
headline in at least one Toronto newspaper, a com-
ment from Prime Minister Trudeau's office that this
“certainly wasn’t what was expected,” and a
statement from Buckingham Palace that the Queen is
aware of Quebee’s political situation but there will be
no comment on Levesque’s words.

The premier was not available to comment on the

_S

More federal aide going to Quebec

MONTREAL (CP) — An
economic research institute —
says there are indications of
a definite trend for Quebec
to derive increasing benefits
from federal budgets.

In its first Accent Quebec
report, the C.D. Howe
Research Institute says this
trend has accelerated since
the 1973 oil crisis and the
substantial federal sub-
sidies that arose from it,

But it concludes that
Quebec did not benefit from
confederation in the 1960s.

The benefits approach, an
accounting method designed

to determine whether 4
province is getting. its
money’s worth from federal
taxation, “fails to show that
Quebee benefited sig-
nificantly from federal
budgetary redistributior
even when equalization
payments are taken into
consideration.”

The cash-flow appreach,
designed to determine
whether the activity of the
federal government causes
funds to move into or aut of a
province, does not “support
the contention that the
federal government spent

ceases this week ranging

place of work has tri

—_
More Quebecers
learning French

MONTREAL (CP) — The number of English-
speaking Montrealers registered in French courses

is fall has increased over last year, a survey of
language-teaching institutions shows.

- “The Protestant School Board of Greater Montreal,
Vanier College and McGill University reported in-

Concordia University also sald enrolment in French
was up but gave no figures. ,

There are 20 per cent more students registered in
French at Dawson College, one of the city’s largest
junior colleges. In addition, Dawson reported the
number of people taking the college’s courses at their

ed.

“Bill 101 (Quebec's Fanguage legislation) has had a
definite effect in substantially increasing the number
of Englishspeaking students wanting to learn Fren-
ch,” one college official said.

A spokesman for the Montreal Catholic School
Commission said the increase has been felt most
strongly in the city’s westend, where most of the
L region’s 800,000 English-speaking residents live.

)

from 13 to 30 per cent.

than one million

1,924 ersons, were
published today in the
Montreal Gazette as part of
a series.

If Quebec separated, 18
per cent of the Quebec
population— or more than a
million residents—would be
more committed to building
a new future elsewhere, the
survey found. In other parts
of the country, five per cent
of those asked said they
would be more committed to
getting out of Canada than
in staying put.

viting Andre Ouellet,
federal rninister of urban
affairs, to address the con-
vention and told Levesque of
this only three weeks ago.

Rejecting any federal role
in municipal affairs, a field
. soe Cael

In Ontario and _ the
Atlantic provinces, one in 20
of those questioned said he
would move, the survey
found, while in British
Columbia, one in 14 was of
the same mind. But only one
in 33 on the prairies would
consider moving. —

Sociologist Marti
Goldfarb said the data from
the survey suggest “that the
separation of Quebec will
mean the demise of the
current political system as
we know it today.”

of Provincial jurisdiction
under the constitution,
Levesque and three of his
ministers pulled out of the
convention this week at the
last minute.

also

Levesque was

more in Quebec during that
period than it levied taxes.”
BENEFITS INCREASE

And it is mainly by using
the cash-flow approach on
fewer estimates that the
C.D. Howe economists
arrived at the conclusion
that there is a trend in the.
1970s for Quebec to derive
increasing benefits.

However, both accounting
methods are com-
plementary as they attempt
to answer different
qu estions. |!
ound they yielded the same
results when accounting for
about 55 per cent of the
federal budget.

“But they can produce |

startling differences when
applied to government
expenditures other than
transfers.”

The reprot — called “Why
Do the Balances Differ on
Federal Receipts and Ex-
penditures in Quebec?” —
comes after attempts by
seven different govern-
ments to analyse the
situation.

Four of the attempts,
which go back to 1964, were
made by Quebec govern-
ments, two by federal
governments and one by the
current Ontario govern-

ment,

But the report finds these
attempts cannot
regarded as even tentative
provincial balance sheets of
Canadian federalism.

“Confederation cannot be
reduced to a mere
budgetary question, since it
involves a whole structure
of rules and ectations
that are implemented

through diverse policies and
that foster to a greater or a
lesser degree the in-
tegration of the constituant
parts of the system,” the
report said. :
DIFFICULT COM-
PARISON

Another stumbling block
is the difficulty in making a
comparison between the
federal system and other
possible systems in terms of
opportunity costs, the report
added.

The opportunity cost is the
cost of what one gives up by
choosing an alternative. In
the example of a worker
who quits his job to go back
to school, the salary he has
given up is the opportunity
cost and should be added to
the other costs of going to
school. -

The three most recent at-
tempts were made by
Rodrigue Trembla
Quebec’s industry and
commerce minister, Darcy
McKeo 5
treasurer, and Donald
Macdonald, when he was the
federal finance minister. All
were done this year.

Tremblay contended that
between 1961-1975, the
federal government had
levied a surplus of #.3
billion from Quebec, while
Macdonald said ad-
justments to the figures
covering 191-1974 gives a
surplus of $1.7 billion to
Quebec.

The chairman of the pro-
gram’s steering committee
is Michel Belanger,

resident of the Provincial
ank of Canada.

would leave....

“IMPLICATIONSFOR ALL’

The figures also suggest
“that the unity debate has
hardly begun and has a

eat deal of developing to

o,”” he said. ‘‘On a_ large
seale, the effect and con-
sequences can have im-
plications for all Canadians,
and it is apparent that they

have not yet been clearly

thought through.”

Goldfarb added that two
in five Canadians appear. to.
have given very littl
thought to. the situation,

tT
i INE
ws

sin

suspicious of the role played
by Gilles Lamontagne, the
mayor of Quebec City who
was president of the
municipalities’ union until
last spring and who still sits
on the executive.

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“One in three Candians
simply are at a loss to know
what the government would
ask or should ask, while
another one in 10 feels that
no demands should be made
of Quebec by the federal
government.”

Lawyers will challenge
French language act

MONTREAL (CP) — Five
Montreal lawyers say they
will challenge in Quebec
Superior Court sections of
the province’s French

‘language charter making

French the only official lan-
guage in Quebec courts.

Peter Blaikie, one of the
five, said Wednesday the
group will start the
challenge today or Friday
and will argue that terms of
the legislation are contra
to the British Nort
America Act.

Blaikie and lawyers
Roland Durand and Yoine
Goldstein will act as
plaintiffs, while Robert
Litvak and Donald Johnson
will plead the case. The
lawyers say their case will
not affect sections of the law
dealing with education,
business and public ad-
ministration.

The language ‘legislation
states that companies or

corporations must pleac

NAIROBI, Kenya (CP) —
President Idi Amin of
Uganda has accused some
army officers of
collaborating with civilians
to topple his military
regime, Radio Uganda said
Amin warned he would
“wipe out thofe ganging up’’
to overthrow him, but he did
not identify the plotters.

HONG KONG (CP) —
Teng Hsiao-ping, the newly
restored deputy prime
minister of China, was
cheered when he made his
first public appearance at a
soccer tournament § in
Peking. Teng was restored
July 22 at a meeting of the
Communist Party's central
committee and reinstated to
all his political posts.

WIGHTMAN &
| REALTY. LTD

REAL ESTare

court cases in French unless
all parties agree to use
English. Judgments must be
written in French or else be
issued with a French
translation which becomes
the official text.

’ Blaikie said the lawyers

are basing their case on
Section 133 of the BNA Act
which says that French and
English can be used in
debates in the federal
Parliament and the Quebec
national assemibly and in the
records and journals of both
legislative bodles.

The section also says
either French or English
may be used in any court

SKEENA NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

FEDERAL NOMINATION
Saturday October Ist, 1977
2:30 p.m.
THORNHILL COMMUNITY HALL

~ TERRACE
Followed By

Cocktails 6:30

Tickets *10°° each

AUTOPLAN AGERT

Guest Speaker - Stu Leggatt MP

Dancing to the music of:
_ Jim Pipers Road Runners

Available from: Phone 635-7314, 632-7039

MAN & S

established under the act
and in any courts of Quebec.
Blaikie said the Parti
Quebecois government must
have known the language
legislation would €
challenged in court, but
added, “You don’t back
away from a provocation
just because you know
you're being provoked.”
Goldstein said he had
actively campaigned tc
persuade the Ontario
government to grant a trial
in French to Quebec busi-
nessman Gerard Filion, who
has been charged in Ontario
in connection with federal
dredging contracts.

Dinner 7:30

MITH

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