H . Socred sweeps Okanagan, Fraser Valley Coast, Island swing strengly to CC PACIFIC TRIBUNE STAFF SURVEY Almost a month after British Columbia voters went to the polls to elect a new provincial legislature, the issue still remains in doubt as to whether the CCF or Social Credit will be called upon to form a minority government. Slow counting of second, third, fourth and fifth choice ballots in several key Vancouver ridings is delaying the final result, since the outcome in these ridings will determine which of the two parties gains the edge, at most one or two seats. On Wednesday this week, Social Credit had officially elected 16 members, the CCF 15, Liberals 6, Conservatives 2, Labor 1. An unofficial count gave Grant Mac- Neil, CCF, a 5-vote margin over Bert Price, Social Credit, to win Vancouver-Burrard on Ballot B, with a recount virtually certain, but in Vancouver-Burrard, Ballot A, Eric Martin had overtaken the first count lead of Alec McDon- ald, CCF. The CCF was leading in Van- ecouver Bast, where Harold Winch, CCF leader, was elected on the first count, and election of Arth- ur Turner appeared certain. The CCF also continued to lead in the two Vancouver Centre seats. So- cial Credit was leading’ on Ballot ©, Vancouver-Point Grey, and was eonceded a chance of wresting Bal- lot A an dB Vancouver-Point Grey seats from the two Conservatives now leading on the first count. Despite the “snafu” arising from first-time operation of the alternative voting system in this RAE EDDIE CCF—New Westminster 4 province, results to date reveal a number of important political trends: . @ The Liberal and Conserva- tive parties, shaken by the debacle they suffered at the polls, aré searching frantically for ways to mend their broken political fences. Defeat of Liberal leader and pre- mier Byron Johnson in New West- minister and Tory chieftain Her_ bert Anscomb in Oak Bay indi- cates early removal of both and probable replacement by national figures (Liberal MP James Sin- clair and Conservative MP Davie Fulton are being touted as pos_ sible provincial leaders). @ A Liberal trial baNoon has been sent up to éstimate the pos- sibility of another Liberal-Tory coalition being formed under a new name. Writing in The Finan- cial Post of June 28, Roy W. Brown, editorial director of the Vancouver Sun, said: “In a new election, the big. appeal would be to unite all free enterprise sup- porters—the people who backed Coalition in 1949 could probably do it again to join as a B.C. Party or something of that sort.” @ The vote which swept out the Liberals and almost eliminat- ed the Tories was a protest against LEO NIMSICK CCF—Cranbrook the old-line party policies. This protest vote, most of it drawn from disgruntled Liberals and Tories, divided itself between the CCF and Social Credit, and ac_ counts for the. seeming paradox that in second and third counts CCF second choices have elected Social Credit candidates over Lib- erals in some ridings, and Social ‘Credit second choices have elected CCF candidates over Liberals in others. @ Should Social Credit win the largest number of seats and be called upon to form a minority government, it is quite possible that Liberals and Tories, needing time to heal their election wounds, would not attempt to force an election at an early date, but would give qualified support to Social. Credit’ legislation in the next session of the legislature. ' @ The Conservative party was the first major contender to be knocked out of the running in a majority of ridings, and counting of its second choice votes showed that about 25 percent of Tory supporters had plumped. Of those who expressed a second choice about 50 percent voted Liberal, 30 percent Social Credit and 20 percent CCF. A survey of final figures shows that in the majority of ridings where the vote went to-three or more counts the Liberal candidate was the*runner-up to the CCF or Social Credit winner, with the Conservative invariably knocked out. Only in a few constituencies such as Peace River and Similka- meen, both of which seats the CCF won in 1945 and lost again to the Coalition in 1949, were both old-line parties eliminated’ in the final count, leaving the CCF as runner-up to Social Credit. This position was reversed in such CCF strongholds as Burnaby, where the Socred candidate ran second to the CCF throughout the count. Again, a study of the geograph- ical distribution of constituencies among the major contending par_ ties brings out these _ salient points: V The ridings that swung into the Social Credit column were in the eastern and northern parts of the province, along the Al- berta boundary and in the prov- ince’s main agricultural dis- tricts, the Okanagan and Fras- er valleys and the Cariboo. Social Credit did not succeed in taking one seat on Vancouver Island or along the Coast, al- though as yet incomplete counts will give the party one or more seats in Vancouver. The pro- test character of the Social Credit vote, reflecting its in_ stability, is apparent in the northern ridings, Peace River and Fort George, for instance, which voted CCF in 1945, Co- alition in 1949, Social- Credit in 1952. V Northern ridings along the Coast and on Vancouver Island resisted Socred blandishments, (Prince Rupert and ‘Mackenzie along the Coast, Comox, Alber- ni, Cowichan-Newcastle, Saan- ich on Vancouver Island, all swinging into the CGF column, Here Social Credit polled a re- latively low vote. Right-wing CCF leadership of the Steelworkers union raid on the Mine-Mill union at ‘Trail was a major factor in defeat of the CCF candidate in Trail- Rossland, which the CCF could otherwise have won. Of the constituencies along the inter- national border, Uphill held Fernie for Labor, Grand Forks- Greenwood and _ Kaslo-Slocan went to the CCF, Similkameén fell to Social Credit by a nar- row margin over the CCF and a recount is in prospect. In Rossland-Trail, however, Social Credit scored at the expense of the CCF. t V One area of Social Credit’s most decisive victories was’ the Okan- agan, where it won South Ok- anagan, North Okanagan and Salmon Arm in addition to Similkameen and was stopped only by the victory of CCF’er Victor Segur in Revelstoke. In, Cranbrook too, CCF’er Leo Nimsick succeeded in retaining his precariously held seat and strengthening his position. Nim- sick has consistently spoken out for peace and opposed the Steel- workers raid on Mine-Mill, V The second decisive area for Socred was the Fraser Valley. Here it won Chilliwack on the first count, added Dewdney and Yale on later counts and over_ whelmed the CCF’s. Len Shep_ herd in Delta, the seat he rep- resented from 1937 until he lost it to the Coalition in 1949. Defeat in New Westminster of Premier Byron Johnson who -heid a slim lead over International Woodworkers leader Rae Eddie, OCF, on the first count, increased his lead on the second count with FRANK CALDER CCF—Atlin the help of Tory ballots, and was knocked out on the third count by. Social Gredit second choice votes, illustrates how the new. al-| ternative voting system can pro- vide entirely different results from the previous straight vote. NEW WESTMINSTER 87 polls (First Count) Johnson (lL) 4297; Wood (PC) 2163; Eddie (CCF) 4262; Lyle (SC) 3614. (Second Count) Johnson (L) 5006; Eddie (CCF) 4587; Lyle (PC) 4104. (Transfer of Wood (PC) ballots: Johnson 709; Eddie 325; Lyle 490; exhausted 639). Third Count, Final) Johnson (LL) 5748; Hddie (CCF) 6475. (Transfer of Lyle (SC) ballots: Johnson 742; Eddie 1888; exhausted 1474.) In Nanaimo-The Islands, David Stupich, CCF, led on the first count, increased his lead with the TOM UPHILL Labor—Fernie aid of UPP second choice votes on the second count, inereased it still further with Social Credit support on the third count, then lost out to Conservative Larry Giovando on the fourth count, when Liberal second choices went overwhelmingly Tory. Here are how the second, third and fourth counts changed the picture: NANAIMO 19 polis : (Second Count) Bradshaw (L) 2267; Giovando (PC) 3353; Stupich (CCF) 3715; Brewster (SC) 962. (Transfer of Morgan (Lab.-Prog.) ballots: Bradshaw 4; Giovando 7; Stupich 142; Brewster 11; exhausted 43.) (Third Count) Bradshaw (L) 2369; Giovando (PC) 3588; Stupich (CCF) 4268. (Transfer of Brewster (SC) bal- lots: Bradshaw 102; Giovando 235; Stupich 411; exhausted 214.) (Fourth Count, Final) Giovando (PC) 5144; Stupich (CCF) 4581. (Transfer of Brad- shaw (L) ballots: Giovando 1556; Stupich 313; exhausted 500.) In Fernie, veteran Labor mem_ ber Tom Uphill lead all the way and was elected on the third count over a Liberal opponent. Here are the figures: FERNIE 18 polls (First Count) Stewart (L)\ 1117; Eliason (CCF) 612; Uphill (Lab.) 1290; Patterson (SC) 713. e ERNEST E. WINCH CCF—Burnaby (Second Count) Stewart 4)" dase). > Una (Lab) 1430; Patterson (SC) 84% (Transfer of Bliason (CCF) bal lots: Stewart 65; Uphill 140; Pat- terson 134; exhausted 273). (Third Count, Final) Stewart (L) 1329; Uphill (Lab) 1758, (Transfer of Patter son (SC) ballots: Stewart 147; Uphill 828; exhausted 372.) . Ernest E. Winch, father of ccF leader Harold Winch and memh ber of the legislature for 19 yeal® was re-elected on the third cou? in Burnaby riding. BURNABY 138 polls (First Count) ; Fairclough (L) 3816; 01802 (PC) 2807; Winch (CGF) 12,993: Worsley (Chr Dem) 681; Stelte? (SC) 6704. : . (Second Count§ Fairclough (L) 3876; 0180)” (PC) 2824: Winch (CCF) 12,980), Stelter (SC) 7179. (Transfer a Worsley (Chr Dem) ballots: Fairclought 64; Olson 17; winch 47; Stelter 474; exhausted 64.) (Third Count, Final) [Fairclough (L) 4917; wind (CCF) 13,414; Stelter , (St’. 7733. (Transfer of Olson, (PO) ballots: Fairclough 1046; wine? 433; Stelter 522; exhausteal 793-) Frank Calder, only Native 1 dian member of a Canadian lesi8- lature, was returned as CCF me * ber for Atlin on the first count: In Esquimalt Frank mitchell: who indicated the trend agaiD® the old line’parties by winnin& Sa pyelection before the last legisl®’ tive session, was elected oD t third count after leading all thé way. j ESQUIMALT 52 polls (First Count) ; Edgelow (L) 2293; Fort (PO) 1550; Mitchell (CCF) 360% Chant (SC) 1606. : (Second Count) : 1 Edgelow (L) 3071; mitcbe (CCF) 3832; Chant (sc) 189% (Transfer of Fort (PC) ballots: Edgelow 778; Mitchell 24°’. Chant 293; exhausted 254.) (Third Count, Final) mt | Edgelow (L) 3452; Mitché J (CCF) 4649, (Transfer of chan” (SC) ballots: Edgelow 381; it chell 817; exhausted 700.) The Social Credit party, wh as yet has no provincial jeade” will hold a caucus July 15 to ele one. Eric Martin. and forme 4 Tory W. A. C. Bennett are mer tioned as possible leader. Se Credit president Lyle Wicks, ole ed in Dewdney, claims he is “ee in the running, for the House le?” ership. ‘ PACIFIC TRIBUNE — JULY 11, 1952 — PAG? 4