PAGE 10

TERRACE HERALD, TERRACE, B.C,

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THURSDAY, JANUARY 7, 1971

This is the wi

** More than 750,000 Ca

oferta

atts, Hares
ase S PSP Ote

The dark shadow of the worst winter unem loyment in a
decade is threatening a work force 018.5 million Canediane.

_ Just a year ago, with his war on inflation six months old,
Prime Minister Trudeau said ‘] hope not” when replying to
<n Sgestions that the unemployment rate might reach six per
cen

Now it has.

A Cross-Canada Survey by The Canadian Press shows that
top economists, labor leaders and others expect an army of
750,000 unemployed this winter, among them about 100,000
white-collar workers.

_ Jim Woods, a 34-year-old unemployed Vancouver elec-
trician, blamed the government's policies for his lack of a job in
the pre-Christmas period.

“They talked happily about creating six-per-cent unem-

_ ployment. That makes me a number. In other countries they’d
be thrown out of office for allowing, not creating, one or two per
cent.”

INDIVIDUALS HURT

Thesurvey also turned up such individual stories as:

~~ Toronto printer Walter Rabjohn, 63, who lost a job he had
held for 42 years and, with it, the pension he expected at 5.

~— John Touble, a 30-year-old skilled mechanic who was
making $3.26 an hour and now feels “degraded” when he goes
job-hunting in Toronto,

— W.E. Armstrong, 44, was president of a Kitchener, Ont.,
plastics company and making more than $20,000 a year. But in
November he was unemployed, job-hunting and living off
dwindling savings.

On the other hand, anti-inflation measures appear to haye
worked. Prices in Canada in the last year rose only 2.8 per cent
compared with 5.8 per cent in the United States.

But the experts say jobs are the inevitable casualties of any
prolonged anti-inflation campaign, and they appear to agree
that the crunch has arrived in unemployment for Canada this
winter.

Latest figures indicated that at mid-November 476,000
workers — an increase of 57,000 from mid-October — were
unemployed. In November last year the total was 354,000 in a
labor force of only 8.1 million.

Among them was a 10-per cent increase, effective Jan. 3, in
unemployment insurance benefits, This increase is to he paid
until June, by which time general revisions and increases in
unemployment insurance are expected to be in effect,

Ottawa uses a figure called the seasonally-adjusted rate of
unemployment, discounting expected seasonal ups and downs.
Although economists prefer to compare figures over a longer
period, in their search for trends, Finance Minister Edgar
Benson cited a September-October drop in seasonally-adjusted
terms — inhis Dec. 3 budget speech as possibly indicating that
unemployment had reached a peak in the last quarter.

SEE HIGHER RATE

But, despite Ottawa's reluctance to predict, there are other
qualified forecasts of an actual rate of about nine per cent
unemployment this winter.

That would mean almost one available worker in 10 will be
out of luck,

Last winter unemployment hit a peak of 6.7 per cent of the
actual work force in March, when 542,000 Canadians were out of
work,

Best year of the last 10 was 1966, with an average 3.6 per
cent, near what experts consider a good target for Canada.

Canada's worst unemployment came in 1933, when 826,000
persons representing 19.6 per cent of the work force were.

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A HERALD PROBE |

jobless,

Since the Second World War, 1961 was the blackest year,
with a peak of 716,000 unemployed — 11.2 per cent.

Despite the prime minister’s tough talk last year, a shift in
emphasis appeared to have become noticeable in government
policy, culminating in the pre-Christmas budget package of job-
generating policies,

BENEFITS TO RISE .

The temporary increase was announced despite a previous
Statement this fall by Labor Minister Bryce Mackasey that
there would be none this winter. ;

Benefits for an unemployed worker with dependents will
increase next month to a range of $19 to $58 a week from the
currrent $17-853 weekly. Single persons benefits of $13 to $42 a
week will increase by between $i and $4 weekly.

Mr. Benson also unveiled a $150-million loan fund to help
finance provincial public works projects, which could mean
15,000 to 25,000 year-long jobs, or more jobs over a shorter run,

The fund will be distributed among provinces on the basis of
unemployment figures, with Quebec's expected $68 million
being the largest.

Another $2 million will be spent by various departments and
agencies on job-creating works between now and the end of the

current fiscal year, in addition to a $60 million increase ane

nounced earlier,

As Ottawa continued its altempts to reach a balance bet-
ween a stagnated economy and damaging inflation, the shift in
position apparently could be dated back to June, when Mr,
Benson told provincial finance ministers of a series of moves to
stimulate the economy. .

ERUDGET WAS RAISED .

These included a $60 million increase in equalization grants
to poorer provinces. Later, the grant allotment was raised by
another $50 million and Central Mortgage and Housing's budget
was raised. ;

To many the essential question appears to be whether or not
Ottawa has moved fast enough to head off winter unemployment
— whether ithas “hung tough’’ foo long in the anti-inflation war.

Mr. Benson, speaking in Vancouver in November, said four
decreases in the Bank of Canada interest rate in five months,
which have brought it down to six per cent from eight, mean the
government is not moving slowly, ; .

But he maintains the prime danger remains that of touching
off a new and inevitably more damaging round of inflation by
restarting the economy too fast.

Arthur Smith, chairman of the Economic Council of
Canada, which advises the federal government on money
matters, said Jast month that no federal measures taken to
stimulate employment could have “any effect by February or
March.”’

About the same time, the Atlantic Provinces Economic
Council said it may be too late to avert a serious economic crisis
in the four eastern provinces this winter, where unemployment
is chronic.

USE OWN RESOURCES

Some provinces, facing growing welfare roles, have tried to
utilize their own resources to offset the problem.

‘But Premier John Robarts of Ontario said it is difficult to
take corrective action at the provincial level when unem-
ployment is deliberately created through federal fiscal and
monetary manipulation.

Apparently some provinces have tried direct hiring of more
people as one answer,

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nter of ou
nadians out of work as unemployment casts its dark shadow on winter:

cent in the region this winter,
reached nationally inthe afterm

Figures published by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics
showed 359,182 employees of nine provinces and the northern
territories at the end of September — up by more than three per
cent, or 11,205 persons, since June. '

in the same period last year the increase was only one per
cent, or 3,304 jobs. British Columbia declines to release its
provincial employment figures.

Among factors making the issue particularly complicated
for some provinces were recent changes of government, which
enforced a pause while new administrations took stock.

And in Quabee, the October outbreak of terrorism and the
murder of Labor Minister Pierre Laporte diverted government
attention from the problem of jobs. .

FORECAST GLOOMY

In the Atlantic provinces, where the September adjusted
unemployment rate of 8.8 per cent fell to 7.6 per cent in October,
APEC's gloomy November forecast was for a continued

r disconten

oH

almost up to the worst figure

ath of the 1990s Depression.’ .

The new governments of premiera Richard Hatfield of New

Brunswick and Gerald Regan of Nova Scotla are Playing it: close
to the chest on specific programs to forestall unemployment this

winter.

But Premier Hatfield kept a campaign promise when he

eliminated a provincial eight-per-cent sales tax

Eric Wright, president of the New Brunswick Counell of
Construction Associations, hailed it as a “shot in the arm at a

critics] time.” Mr.
jobs.

Paul LePage, president of the

Federation, blamed Ottawa for “holding the line on spending, {
and wage increases, making it difficult for small companies to |

operate.””

In Newfoundland, Walter Critchley, president of the

economic slowdown lasting well into the first half of next year.
APEC said that “if federal and provincial efforts were
forthcoming immediately, the problem might be alleviated toa

certain extent.”

There were 34,000 persons looking for work in the Atlantic
Provinces in October. The December budget provided that
about nine per cent of a $180 million fund for public works
projects will go to the Atlantic region — ‘$5 million to
Newfoundland, $4 million each fo Nova Scotia and New Brun-
swick and $1 million to Prince Edward Island, Another $20
million is allocated for the new St, Scholastique airport near

Montreal,

Only Premier Joseph Smallwood of Newfoundland has
disagreed strongly with the APEC assessment of the unem-
ployment situation this winter. He called it a “gross
exaggeration’ when applied to Newfoundland, Planned in-
dustrial developments in his province appear not to have been

considered, he contended.

Last winter the actual rate of unemployment in the Atlantic
region hit a peak 12.6 per cent in New Brunswick and3.2 per cent
in Nova Scotia, both inFebruary: 15.4 per cent in Newfoundland

‘in March and 12.1 per cent in Prince Edward Island.
Published forecasts have included a possible peak 18 per

provincial labor federation, has predicted up to 15 per cent
unemployment this winter. Conservative Leader Frank Moores
says 180,000 to 200,000 of Newfoundland’s 500,000 population will
be on welfare.

In Prince Edward Island, where farming and.fishing make
for high seasonal unemployment, a labor department:
spokesman said “nothing above the ordinary’ is expected this
winter. A spokesman in Premier. Alex Campbell's office ex-
pressed a similar beliéf, ; .

In British Columbia, where 69,000 persons were out of work
in October, the second-largest chunk of special federal funds :
announced in December is expected to be used in attempts to
hold down unemployment, ;

B.C. stands to get about 24 per cent, or $35 million, of the
$200 million. . ; ;

Plagued by labor unrest this year, as well as a flood of
“immigrants” from other parts of Canada, there was one
prediction from a government official of eight per cent unem-
ployment in B.C. this winter.

Last winter it was 6.5 per cent between November and April,

com

red with 4.7 per cent five years earlier, .
remier W.A.C, Bennett says restraints of the last sum—

. mer will be lifted to create jobs, but few specifics are given.

TERRACE’S ‘ALL-CANADIAN’ UNION

Workers help

Things are brightening up for
some of the 65 men laid off from
their jobs at Skeena Forest
Products just before Christmas.

“Thirty per cent have been
called back and most have
found other jobs, some of them
with our help,” said . union
president, Barry English,
Monday.

He said his union — the in-
dependent Terrace and District
Forestry Workers, local 1 -
found jobs for nine of the:men
with Pohle Lumber, in Terrace.

English added that his union

is not a “company union" as
reported in The Herald, but a
“free and fully independent
union,"’
CRITICAL
He was critical of the In-
ternational Woodworkers of
America, which represents
most of the other sawmill! and
logging workers in the area,
. “We're a fully Canadian
union and we have no tiles
whatsoever with the United
States,” English said.
. “We're trying to keep
Canadian money in Canada,

each other —

unlike the [WA which has its
headquarters in the U,S.,"’ the
Union president said.

“One important thing is that,
as president, I know all our
members...we're a very close
union that way,” English said.

‘KEEP IT HOME'

English said if szme of the
larger unions, like the IWA,
were not international, that is,
having U.S. affiliation, were
Canadian “we could regain
Canadian contro] of our in-
dustry.”

Besides the usual fringe

_ Said

benetits, English said his men
get free turkeys for Christmas;
a member is paid $100 a month
sick leave on top of regular
compensation and if a member
is getting married, the union is
quick with wedding presents
and other help, .

It also helps find jabs for its
unemployed members, Engtish

said, referring to Pohle Lum- §f
ber. .

“The IWA has tried to raid us

four times and the Pulp and

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