Feature

Where is Canadian space program going? |

By PETER DIEDRICH
nearly spring of this
year, Canada signed
an intergovernmen-
tal agreement with
the U.S. which solid-
ly embossed the Can-
adian flag of partici-
pation on the U.S.
International Space
Station. Canada now joins the U.S., Japan
and the 13-member European Space
Agency (ESA) in this monumental project.

_This historic agreement, committing $1.2
billion over 17 years to the design, produc-
ton and utilization of the Canadian Mobile
Servicing System (MSS) robot to aid in the
Construction and operations of the space
Station facility in low Earth orbit over its
€xpected 30-year lifetime, provides for Can-
adian participation in the largest interna-
ional co-operative technological under-
taking in history.

_ Italso poses some extremely potent ques-
tions concerning the direction and scope of
the Canadian space program over the next
50 years. Is the MSS going to provide for
high technology infrastructure, and to what
extent? Is the U.S. a reliable and trust-
Worthy partner for achieving our own Can-
adian space-and technology goals? Will this
Partnership and the nuances expected to be
troduced by the Canada-U.S. bilateral

Tee trade agreement still allow Canada to
lead in and expand its activities in space-

‘ased remote sensing, telecommunications
Satellite technology, and space-based robot-
Ics systems such as MSS and CANA-
DARM? Or will Canada’s goals be
Subjugated to U.S. policies encompassing

€ missile defence system project, Star

"vars, and the other military space applica-
Hons, or even a 21st century U.S.-USSR

Space race?”

A rethinking of present space goals and
Policy and present and future international
alliances is necessary for Canada to realize
Its true potential as a leader in and benefac-
tor of civilian space activities in the 21st
Century,

. In 1962, Canada became the third nation
space with the successful mission of the
Tesearch satellite Alouette. Through exten-
Sve and informally arranged co-operative
agreements, Canada and the U.S. have col-
aborated in most of Canada’s space suc-
Cesses over the past 25 years. The 1974

€cision of then Minister of State for

“lence and Technology, Jeanne Sauve, to
Support the joint government-industry
development of the CANADARM has
=

An artist's conception of the space station's service centre, scheduled to be built by Canada’s Spar Aerospace.

since spawned a world-class Canadian
robotics and automation capability that
Canada is now capitalizing on for the pres-
ent Space Station MSS robotics system.
The 1983 selection of the Canadian
Astronaut Corps marked the commitment
of Canada to a manned space capability.
Targeted for training and execution of
scientific activity on the shuttle, only one
Canadian, Marc Garneau, has seen a mis-
sion. Seven years later, Steve MacLean is
scheduled to fly in late 1991. Focusing on
space, science and medical experiments, his
mission will be highlighted by a test of the
NRC Space Vision System, a tool that will
complement the robotics technology that
Canada already has.
These initiatives are inextricably tied to
the continuing success of the U.S. shuttle

program. The effects of another shuttle fail-.

ure would be disastrous for the U.S. and
NASA, but would also be an equally potent
blow to Canada’s space program. The suc-
cessful mission of Discovery last month,
however, is extremely encouraging.

The crown jewel of the Canadian space
program is the $1.2-billion Mobile Servicing
System. It is scheduled for initial deploy-
ment in the mid-1990s and completion
within the succeeding 20 or so shuttle mis-
sions to follow. According to figures
released by the Ministry of State for Science
and Technology (MOSST), the MSS is
expected to generate $5-billion in revenues
and 8,000 person-years of employment in
the space industry. Spinoffs in robotics, arti-
ficial intelligence, electronics and simulator
design are definitely going to occur. There
are, however, some subtle nuances to this
optimistic scenario. Eas

Space Station is falling increasingly
behind schedule due to numerous delays in
many NASA programs. The annual Con-
gressional gauntlet that NASA runs to fund
the project is becoming increasingly hostile.
Most space policy analysts agree that this

The USSR’s new space shuttle Buran
(snowstorm), seen here before its
successful mission last week, marked
Soviet entry into the recoverable
space vehicle field. Canadian-Soviet
co-operation, already in practice in
some areas of space research, could
benefit both countries.

year’s $940 million (U.S.) is barely enough
to keep the program running. Future fund-
ing is held hostage to an expected April 1989
report from the new President-elect. While
both Dukakis and Bush supported Space
Station, the $1-trillion SDI project, a $3-
billion space plane, or future interplanetary
missions to Mars (in competition?) with the
USSR may take precedence. The lack of
coherence in U.S. space goals may delay
further or even scuttle the $30-billion Space
Station in favour of a wholly U.S. configu-
ration.

For Canada’s part, we retain three per
cent control of the U.S., Japanese, and ESA
space station modules and facilities. The

even Arctic surveillance. With all this data
available, 10,000 person-years of employ-
ment and at least $1-billion in benefits are
expected.

Following the Challenger accident,
NASA decreed that the shuttle will not be
used for commercial payloads. Both MSAT
and RADARSAT are not likely to be
launched on the shuttle. After 25 years,
Canada is left to wonder where to go for
timely, reliable and less costly launch servi-
ces. And more to the point, where to go for
partners for present and future space
endeavors.

Canada has an array of international
alliances to chose from to shake off its

Arethinking of present space goals and policy and present
and future international alliances is necessary for Canada to
realize its true potential as a leader in and benefactor of
civilian space activities in the 21st century.

U.S. “towns” 97 per cent of its modules as
well as 46 per cent of the ESA and Japanese
ones, while Japan and ESA control 51 per
cent of their facilities. With a planned crew
of four to eight astronauts on 90-day rota-
tions, this curious mix amounts to “a Cana-
dian once in a while.” It’s hardly
conceivable that this three per cent will be
adequate. A Canadian astronaut will be
expected to attend to the scientific tasks
important to Canadian researchers on
Earth and simultaneously to perform and
co-ordinate a large majority of construction
and maintenance tasks using the MSS. Is
this realistic?

Fortunately, Canada has some other pro-
jects underway. The Mobile Communica-
tions Satellite (MSAT) is expected to be a
successful component of our program. Due
to be deployed in 1992, this commercial
satellite will cater to the communications
needs of mobile users, and is expected to
generate 3,000 jobs and over $2.4-billion in
revenues according to MOSST projections.

Remote sensing, Canada’s other forte, is
due for a quantum leap with RADARSAT
in 1994. Using advanced radar technology,
this satellite will provide high resolution
images of the earth for such applications as
mapping, environmental monitoring, and

dependence on the U.S. The European
Space Agency is on top of the list. Since
1978, Canada has been an associate ESA
member and has participated in remote
sensing and telecommunications programs
with countries such as France and Sweden.

With a national commitment to space
science and research, and potentially com-
mercially viable space materials processing
technologies, a stronger commitment to
ESA and its major countries, France and
West Germany, would give Canada much
leverage. FRG research in materials science
is first-rate. Better access to France’s Ariane
rocket launch services and possible access to
the manned Hermes space plane are within
reach,

A less delayed and faster growing spac
industry could easily result. Conversely,
with Canada-U.S. FTA in the offing, Euro-
pean countries will do well to increase their
ties to Canada in order to gain greater
access to U.S. aerospace markets.

Canada recently signed an intergovern-
mental agreement with the USSR. What
can we gain from co-operating closely with
the Soviets in space?

In the past, Canada and the USSR coop-
erated in Search and Rescue (SARSAT)

see VISIONARY page 11

Pacific Tribune, November 28, 1988 e 5