low fast could automation
come in this country?

HE RESEARCH department
of the United Electrical
Workers union (UE) has

come up with some. startling
“guesstimates” on the rate at
which automation «could take
place in ‘Canada.

Startling as the predictions
are, however, the UE research
staff still thinks its guesses may
be “conservative”.

Here are some of the figures:

In.as little as 20.years over
half-the output of all-manufac-
turing. could come- from. auto-
mated plants: In: addition, a
quarter of the output of non-
manufacturing activities could
be automated.

One-third. of: the total output
of the whole economy could
therefore come from the auto-
mated sector by. 1985.

- Of the 5,367,000 jobs in exist-

ence in Canada in 1961, some
1,550,000 could be automated
by 1985. This would leave
3,817,000 jobs not yet elimin-
ated by automation by that
time.

While these results are the
product of guesswork, it is
educated guesswork based on
careful research. Here is how
the UE estimates were done:

Production — manufacture of
widgets, for example — can. be
broken- down into eight stages,
Says the UE staff.

(1) Handling. the raw mate-
rials; (2) Making ‘individual

On the
labor front

parts and sub. assemblies; .(3).
Inspection and quality control
in the manufacturing process;
(4) Assembling — the finished
product; (5) Final inspection and
testing; (6) Packaging. (7) Stor-
ing; (8) Packaging and.shipping.

“Automation can be applied
in parts or all of each of these
stages. With a system of elec-
tronic data processing to integ-
rate orders, production, ship-
ping and accounting the whole
system could be automated.”

But, “there are very few ex-
amples of complete automation
yet.” The trend, however, is ac-
celerating and it is the concept
of full automation which con-
cerns the UE.

-In most concerns, there will
be a “progressive application”
of automation — “first in some
operations or departments, with
gradual integration under over-
all data processed control. Even-
tually . . . automated plants
will be designed and built on
entirely new concepts of pro-
duction.”

.Because not all industries are
concerned with the eight stages
of production listed above (for
example, several. stages are
eliminated in oil refining), com-
plete automation is easier to
achieve in some industries than
in others. —

Thus, the UE research sup-
plies a classification of indus-
tries ranging from the simplest
to the most difficult to av“o-
mate, as follows:

PROCESS — liquid, gas or
fine solid product that is homo-

geneous and will flow by gra-
vity.

CONTINUOUS — solid pro-
duct in continuous form (paper,
steel, strip, extruded plastic).

_LINE — discrete (individual)
products moved along mechanic-
ally with operations performed

en route.

ASSEMBLY production
consisting of discrete items put
together.

Since this classification does
not fit the whole range of ser-

vice industries ‘we are left
with little technical help to
guide us in guessing how fast
automation can come in offices
and stores.”

But, using its basic classifica-
tions
guide, the UE research staff
examines over 50 Canadian in-
dustries and plots their possible
automation rate over 20 years.

For example, it is estimated
that the dairy products proces-
sing industry may be 20 per-
cent automated by 1965; 40 per-
cent by 1975; and 90 percent by
1985.

The furniture line and as-
sembly industries would be only
5 percent automated by 1975
and 15 percent automated by
1985.

The forestry processing in-
dustry would be about 15 per-
cent automated by 1975 and 25
percent by 1985.

In agriculture and fishing
there would be considerable me-
-chanization, but little automa-
tion over the next 20 years. The
full table of the UE’s estimates
is supplied in the union’s Aug-
ust, 1964 research bulletin.

Applying the same methods
to employment figures, the UE
comes up with the following
predictions: :

In 1961 there were 1,360,000
jobs in manufacturing, and
5,367,000 jobs in the whole
Canadian economy. By 1965,

described above as a.

automation will eliminalé I
000 jobs in manufac ;
335,000 in the whole @00h
by 1975—367,000 in mal
turing, 900,000 in the
economy; by 1985 — 669,08
manufacturing, 1,550,000 ot
whole economy.
Qualifying its guesse>,
research states: “it SU"
stressed again that the
results are abstracted ff
important factors of Chl™
demand, new. industries
products and’ shortenif
work time, which cout
help to increase employ
and, on the other hand:
effects of increased P
tivity through mechaniZ#
tending to reduce employm™

8883733 se

“Suicide!”

Significant negotiations

By WILLIAM KASHTAN

NION SETTLEMENTS

‘with the big auto com-.

panies. in the United
States will undoubtedly in-
fluence negotiations in - the
Canadian auto industry.

At the same time Canadian
auto workers are correctly
emphasizing. that specific
problems. pertaining to the
auto industry in Canada need
to be reflected in any settle-
ment reached here.

-Top among these “speci-
fics” is wage parity with
U.S. auto workers — a de-
mand the last international
convention’ of the union .
pledged. to support.

‘Ihe convention also pledg-
ed to support the demand for
amendments to the Ontario
Labor Act to enable: workers
to strike on. questions such
as working conditions, Intol-
erable ‘speedup in. the indus-
iry, which: gave rise. to. wild-
vat strikes recently, empha-
szes the urgencv of geit'ng

at this question as part of
the. effort to give workers a
strong voice in determining
the pace of production.

* * x

In addition to wage parity,
improved working conditions,
improved vacation plans,
Canadian auto - workers are
also. determined to achieve
parity with U.S, auto work-
ers on pensions, basing their
demands on thé aim of $400
per month for 30 years ser-
vice and earlier, retirement.

_ The effort to achieve im-
proved pensions is more than
a “mere wage demand.” It is
not only an effort to enable —
workers to retire at an
earlier age with some ele-
ments of security and dig-
nity after a lifetime of. pro-
ducing huge profits for the
auto corporations. It is also
aimed at. enabling young
people to find employment in
the auto industry in the age
of automat‘on.

If Canadian auto workers
achieve a breakthrough on
these demands ‘it will open
the door for the rest of
organized labor.

* * *

No less significant are ne-
gotiations under way in the
steel industry, particularly in
basic steel

Both Stelco and Algoma
Steel are in stages of con-
Ciliation with the Steelwork-
ers. Stelco Local 1005 is ad-
vancing demands such as:
parity with wages in steel in
the U.S.; an extended vaca-
tion plan to give workers
with five years’ service a 10-
week vacation with pay in
addition to the regular vaca-
tion every five years; a sup-
plementary unemployment
benefit fund of $40 per week
in addition to unemployment
insurance benefits for 52
weeks, and a payment of $55
per week when these benefits
run out; two weeks vacation

after one year’s service, three
weeks after 10 years and
four weeks after 20 years;
improvements in group insur-
ance and medical coverage.
The local is also seeking
maintenance of earnings for
workers affected by techno-
logical change.

Unable to hide its great
profits, huge orders and con-
tinuing expansion, the Stelco
management argues against
the just demands of steel
workers with the claim that
wage increases should not be
related to company or indus-
try productivity but to aver-
age, nation-wide productivity
increases.

* aT ee

This is the wage policy the
Kennedy administration and
the British government tried
to foist on the trade union
movements of their countries
— a so-called “incomes” pol-

icy. which would gear wages ~

to national productivity, not

October 2, 1964—PACIFIC TRIBU

to the productivity ip
plant or industry.
Such a policy would
wage increases tO the
est industries pe &
leave rofits
profits ieee in those
tries which are boom

No wonder stele?
an “incomes” poli¢
to Steel. In the U-5:
tain, however, the
are rejecting this P™
there is every reas0
lieve it will also
by Canadian steel WO

They are not like?
taken in by the
arguments to prot
profits at the ©
wages. i

This year’s ©
show that, like |
workers and work
eral, the steel wl
determined to get
share of the wealth
duce and he
strength to get
strength is used effet

All conditions exist
and steel for importa”,
throughs this ye@® |
ing the interests Z
steel workers ine
throughs could @” on
time establish impr ed Ja
terns for the orale i
movement as a W

my |

a
of